UN Climate Change Conference

Negotiations
An agreement drawn up Friday night by leaders from the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa has been recognised Saturday morning by the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change." The conference of the parties takes note of the Copenhagen Accord," says a final decision.

The text is still strongly debated, and it remains to be seen how many countries will sign on to the Copenhagen Accord. In the agreement, the parties acknowledge climate change as one of the greatest challenges facing humanity. They aim to limit climate warming to two degrees Celsius. This will require a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the countries were unable to agree on the adoption of the objective necessary to achieve this aim such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by 2050.
The document contains a promise by the wealthy states to provide a total of 30 billion US dollars in climate-related aid to developing countries until 2012. This sum is to be increased to 100 billion US dollars per year by 2020. It was also decided to establish a green climate fund. The "Copenhagen Accord" acknowledges that deforestation and forest degradation are a major source of greenhouse gases. This process is to be halted, inter alia, through the provision of financial incentives. Based on the "Copenhagen Accord", the industrialised countries have until 1 February 2010 to report the measures they will implement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2012 to 2020. This also applies to the USA which did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The result achieved in Copenhagen is a unilateral undertaking and is not legally binding. The earliest point at which a legally binding agreement can be reached is the 16th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP16) at the end of next year in Mexico.

Please follow this link to read the original text of the Copenhagen Accord

Reactions:

• The most important result in Copenhagen was, according to US President Barack Obama, that large emerging economies began" for the first time" to open up to taking on responsibilities for limiting growth of greenhouse gases.
• "It may not be everything we hoped for, but this decision of the Conference of Parties is an essential beginning ... The importance will only be recognised when it's codified into international law ... We must transform this into a legally binding treaty next year," UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon commented.
• UN climate Chief Yvo de Boer said at the final press conference:" What I find significant in the accord is some of the language that ultimately wasn't agreed but was on the table, language that referred to emission reductions of 50% by mid-century and in that context an 80% emissions reduction by industrialised countries. And the pressure of time rather than unwillingness made it impossible to get that language into the agreement in a responsible way. But that is clearly what the international community is thinking about and working towards; and if I were a business leader or an investor I would want my government to give me as much clarity as quickly as possible on how it intended to legislate, regulate and maybe even tax in order to achieve those goals and what that would mean in terms of my business environment. So I expect that there is going to be a growing eagerness on that part of business to see this accord to be turned into something that is legally clear and rigorous."
• Other sources such as environmental organisations called the accord the" shame of Copenhagen" and even coined the term" Flopenhagen".

Negotiations
With one day to go before world leaders leave Copenhagen, there is still real uncertainty over the outcome of the negotiations and even the prospect that governments might fail to reach an agreement. The barriers to success are as much about substance as form. Developing countries would prefer to extend the Kyoto Protocol (which is the only legally binding treaty in town, and only places commitments on developed countries), however the US will never ratify Kyoto and Europe doesn't want to commit to emissions reductions under Kyoto unless there is comparable action in the US and major developing countries. Apart from discussions on the future of Kyoto, there is a potential deal on Long-term Cooperative Action, which would include all major economies.

Several days of negotiating time in Copenhagen were lost on process. After two years of negotiations, the Chairs of the two groups have been unable to generate coherent documents with a limited number of clearly defined alternatives for the heads of state to discuss. One of the few business observers allowed into the Bella Centre was pessimistic and suspects that some parties just don't want an agreement and are simply obstructing the process. The US position requires that the actions taken by major economies (i.e. China) be transparent – in other words measurable and verifiable. Although the Chinese have long resisted international verification, the word in the corridors has it that they were starting to show more flexibility on this issue.

At this stage, it is unlikely that the deal at COP15 will be as robust as many in the business community had called for during the build up. But, perhaps the most important outcome at Copenhagen is that it is not a step backward. It is essential that the agreement here does not undermine the political process in the US or the passage of climate legislation through Congress. And with further commitments by China, COP15 may still support the development of robust climate policies in the US. At the end of it all, the real measure of success at Copenhagen will be how fast China, the US and other major economies shift to a low carbon economy over the next decade.

Science, studies and announcements

• A confidential UN draft marked "do not distribute" and "initial draft" shows a gap of up to 4.2 giga-tonnes of carbon emissions between the present pledges and the required level of 44 giga-tonnes that is required to stay below a two-degree temperature rise. According to the "Stern Review" (presented by economist Nicholas Stern to the British government), a warming of three or four degrees Celsius will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people being flooded each year due to rising sea levels. "There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in Southeast Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, New York, Cairo and London," the report shows.
• A warning to delegates in Copenhagen: If you're looking for President Barack Obama to cave in to pressure and deepen US efforts to curb greenhouse gases, don't bet on it. Obama, like most world leaders, is constrained by tough politics at home. And that makes it tougher for the summit to produce meaningful pollution cuts. On Wednesday, US officials stressed that when Obama travels to the climate conference in Denmark this week he won't bring anything to the talks beyond Washington's already stated goals: to commit to reducing greenhouse gases by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and to pay a "fair share" into a 10 billion US dollars fund to help developing countries deal with climate change.
• China's Climate Change Ambassador Yu Qingtai rejected the rumours that China does not perceive it as feasible to achieve operational consensus to tackle global warming this week at the UN climate conference. "I do not know where this rumour came from but I can assure you that the Chinese delegation came to Copenhagen with hope and have not given it up," Yu Qingtai told - "Copenhagen is too important to fail".
• In partnership with other countries, the US will try to mobilise 100 billion dollars a year for climate aid by 2020, according to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The US insists that funding will only be granted if developing countries allow for full transparency of their emissions.
• While intensive climate negotiations continued at the conference centre, focussing on aspects such as how to share the burden of carbon emissions cuts and the cost of global warming, European leaders took turns in delivering their pep talks in the plenary hall. "There is less than 24 hours. If we carry on like this, it will be a failure," French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned from the conference podium.
• The Swiss delegation's speech at the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference with the title "We can because we have to" pointed out the world's responsibility for immediate action against global warming (click here).

Negotiations

The negotiating process at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen was subject to an "unexpected stop" on Wednesday, according to Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate official. The unexpected stop happened as delegates needed time to discuss the basis of the further talks. It was expected all Wednesday that the Danish conference presidency would present a text to establish consensus. However, on Wednesday evening Yvo de Boer said he did not know if the Danish text had actually been tabled. "It is still possible to reach a real success," Yvo de Boer said, but there are "a number of unsolved issues" left for world leaders to resolve at their summit on Thursday and Friday. "The next 24 hours are absolutely crucial," Yvo de Boer said.

Earlier in the day, hundreds of protesters were trying to disrupt the 193-nation conference, the latest action in days of demonstrations to demand "climate justice" – i.e. firm action to combat global warming. Police said 230 protesters were detained. Inside the cavernous Bella Center convention hall, negotiators dealing with core issues debated until just before dawn without setting new goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions or for financing poorer countries' efforts to cope with coming climate change, key elements of any deal. "I regret to report we have been unable to reach agreement," John Ashe of Antigua, chairman of one negotiating group, reported to the full 193-nation conference later Wednesday morning.

Announcements

• On Wednesday, the Chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, John Kerry, promised that the US Congress will pass a climate change bill in 2010 if the UN climate conference ends successfully. "With a successful deal here in Copenhagen, next year, the US Congress – House and Senate – will pass legislation," Kerry said at a meeting in Copenhagen. John Kerry mentioned one key requirement that the talks had to meet in order to get US backing: China and other developing countries should meet the US demand for accountability on their emission cuts. This demand has so far been rejected by some larger developing countries.
• As the first world leader to arrive on Tuesday in Copenhagen two days ahead of schedule, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown tried to help broker discussions on who should pay to tackle global warming. A failure at the summit would have serious consequences. If temperatures rise too far, the world economy would suffer an unprecedented "catastrophe", he said. "If we do not act to tackle climate change, the costs to our standard of living will be huge - a reduction in our national income of up to 20 percent, this century's economic catastrophe equivalent to the impact of two world wars and the great depression in the last," he warned.
• Japan was pledging a total of 15 billion US dollars for climate aid for developing countries up to 2012, Japan's delegation announced at the UN climate conference late Wednesday. Of the 15 billion dollars, 11 billion dollars will be public money, according to a press release from the delegation. The Japanese pledge is more generous than EU's promise to fund 7.2 billion euro (9.39 billion dollars) for the same purposes over the next three years. The Japanese funding is given on the condition that a successful political accord is achieved at the climate conference in Copenhagen.
• The US, Australia, France, Japan, Norway and Britain will make 3.5 billion US dollars available for developing countries that produce ambitious plans to slow and eventually reverse deforestation.
• The African Union climate negotiator Meles Zenawi has scaled back the demands for climate finance from rich countries, signalling a thaw under way in the deadlocked UN negotiations. Meles Zenawi has announced that he agrees that 100 billion US dollars annual funds by 2020 from rich countries will help the developing countries fight and adapt to climate changes. The EU has estimated that the developing countries will need 150 billion dollars. "On long-term financing, I propose funding for adaptation and mitigation (emissions curbs) should start by 2013, to reach up to 50 billion dollars per annum by 2015 and 100 billion dollars per annum by 2020," he said on behalf of the African group. 

Tobias's impressions

Admission rights to the main conference for non-governmental bodies has become stricter and stricter over the last few days. Different admission badge systems have been installed to limit the number of attendees to below 15,000, with over 45,000 people wanting to attend. At the same time, most of the attendees arrived at the beginning of the second week. This combination led to incredibly long queues in front of the conference buildings. Some people had to wait eight hours outside in the freezing cold to be admitted to the conference. Luckily I had already registered last week, which allowed me to jump the line on Monday. However, I have not been allowed into the main conference area since Tuesday due to the stricter admission rules. As many business representatives are suffering from the same problem, many fringe events are happening outside the main conference, and are just as interesting to attend. Yesterday I attended a panel discussion about corporate emissions reporting in which Alan McGill, a UK partner, participated. The problem of the increasing number of different reporting standards for emissions was discussed, and Alan called for an international framework for emissions reporting similar to financial reporting standards such as IFRS.

Apart from the negotiations and fringe events, the Danish weather does not show any signs of global warming; since yesterday it has been snowing in the capital of Denmark.

Negotiations
As heads of state and governments were beginning to arrive at Copenhagen, a ceremony on Tuesday marked the formal opening of the final high-level stage of the ongoing UN conference on climate change, COP15. "We know what we must do. We know what the world expects. Our job here and now is to seal the deal, a deal in our common interest," UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said, while adding that the world's leaders face "a defining moment in history". The secretary-general also said that "three years of effort have come down to three days of action. Let us not falter in the home stretch. No one will get everything they want in this negotiation". German chancellor Angela Merkel voiced concern on Tuesday about the pace of climate negotiations in Copenhagen, and said she is "somewhat nervous" about the prospects of success. "These kinds of big conferences with many, many interests frequently get stuck, but it's Tuesday already and we want to be done on Friday," Merkel said after meeting Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
On Monday, Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd urged world leaders to be more flexible as a consensus looks difficult to achieve. Otherwise, the global climate summit is at risk of "failure", said the prime minister.
Besides all the concerns, there is mounting agreement on rewarding tropical countries which slow deforestation under a new deal. This is the first issue where significant progress has been made in Copenhagen. Negotiators in Copenhagen have made progress on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (also known as REDD).

Science, studies and announcements

• As requested by UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, South Korea is ready to play a key role in Copenhagen. "I'm ready to tackle global issues such as climate change not by words, but by actions," president Lee Myung-bak replied to the UN secretary-general's request, according to the Korea Times. South Korea recently announced that it will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by four percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. This makes the country the first emerging economy to take on an absolute reduction commitment and not only a relative commitment compared with a business-as-usual scenario.
• China will no longer take the lion's share of international funding for carbon mitigation projects under the UN-backed Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The statements made by vice foreign minister He Yafei were first interpreted as if China would refrain totally from any financing under the scheme, but that view has now been corrected. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu tells My Sinchew that the minister "had said China was focused on the special concerns of the least developed countries, African countries and the small island countries" and that Beijing was "willing to give priority to these countries in using the capital assistance given by developed countries".
• When Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama lands in Copenhagen for the UN climate summit, he will bring along an offer of 10 billion US dollars to help developing countries fight global warming. The pledge of 10 billion dollars over three years, including steps to protect biodiversity, is more than previously announced.

Negotiations
Poor countries ended a temporary boycott of the UN climate talks on Monday after getting assurances that rich nations were not conspiring to reduce their commitments to cutting greenhouse gases, European officials said. Informal talks resolved the impasse between rich and poor nations and ended the daylong boycott, which was started by African countries and backed by 135 developing countries including China and India. The boycott disrupted efforts to forge a pact on global warming, delaying the frantic work of negotiators who are trying to resolve technical issues before more than 110 world leaders arrive in Copenhagen later in the week. It appeared aimed at shifting the focus of the UN climate talks to the responsibilities of industrial countries and making greenhouse gas emission cuts the first item for the leaders to discuss. A proposal aimed at saving the world's tropical forests suffered a setback on Sunday when negotiators at the UN climate talks ditched plans for faster action on the problem because of concerns that rich countries aren't willing to finance it. Destruction of forests – burning or cutting trees to clear land for plantations or cattle ranches – is thought to account for about 20 percent of global emissions. That's as much carbon dioxide as all the world's cars, trucks, trains, planes and ships combined. So a deal on deforestation is considered a key component of a larger pact on climate change being negotiated in Copenhagen. Environmentalists earlier this month hailed the forest talks as one area where negotiations were progressing, and some suggested they could serve as a catalyst to inking a larger climate deal here in Copenhagen. But they have fallen victim to the same bickering between rich and poor nations which has slowed progress on the wider agreement. There are still no firm figures on financing or cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the larger agreement.

Science, studies and announcements

• The Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN/Bafu) presented Switzerland's Fifth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The report documents the progress achieved in the implementation of Switzerland's international commitments in relation to climate. According to the report, Switzerland is likely to fulfil its emission targets. For further information click here.
• As Najib Razak, prime minister of Malaysia, joins the UN summit on climate change in Copenhagen later this week, his agenda will go beyond placing demands on industrialised countries. "We are willing to offer our commitment. I am not just going to call on the developed world. I am going to commit Malaysia and I am going to commit Malaysia to very credible cuts, which means we have to spend, which we will do," Najib Razak said.
• Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon told reporters on Monday before flying to Copenhagen that he is reasonably optimistic the UN conference will end with a politically binding deal that is fair, comprehensive and equitable. Ban said there is strong support among the 192 UN member states for 10 billion US dollars in fast-track, short-term funding to help developing countries deal with climate change starting in 2010. He said he will be urging agreement on longer-term and a larger financial support package up to 2020 and beyond to help developing nations cope with global warming.
• An agreement between the US, Brazil, India and China can form the basis of a global deal, says Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev. If the US, Brazil, India and China coordinate their commitments, an agreement will be found at the ongoing UN-led negotiations in Copenhagen – according to Russia's president. China, the US and India are three of the world's largest emitters, while Brazil has a large impact on the global climate through its management of the Amazon forest.
• Environment ministers from all over the world have now arrived at the ongoing UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, and UK energy and climate change minister Ed Miliband urged his colleagues to leave only few issues behind to be resolved by heads of state and government. "I've always said the leaders' role in this process is incredibly important to get the final pieces of the jigsaw in place. But what we cannot do is leave a whole slew of issues to leaders," Miliband said.
• Norway and Mexico join forces and propose a model for climate funding at the negotiations in Copenhagen. The model establishes a green fund for financing climate actions in developing countries. Contributions to the green fund should come both from public budgets and from auctions of emission allowances. According to the proposal, the scale of the green fund could start around 10 billion dollars per year by 2013 and increase to 30-40 billion dollars by 2020.
• French president Nicolas Sarkozy and his Indonesian counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said in a joint statement that they´re working hard toward an "ambitious agreement" in Copenhagen. They met on Monday in Paris. France is supporting a plan for fighting deforestation at the talks. The issue is important for Indonesia because it is home to 10 percent of the world's forests.
• The White House on Monday announced a new programme drawing funds from international partners to spend 350 million US dollars over five years to supply developing nations with clean energy technology.
• When the first heads of state arrive at Copenhagen on Wednesday, they must have an agreed text to look at, says India's environment minister Jairam Ramesh. He "categorically" insists that an agreed text on a global deal reaching beyond the present period of the Kyoto Protocol must be worked out during the night of Tuesday, 15 December. Mr. Ramesh also dismisses any suggestions of replacing the Kyoto Protocol with an alternative agreement: "India is not here to renegotiate agreement. The mandate enables (the) existing two track approach of the Kyoto Protocol and the Long-term Co-operative Action to move ahead. The two tracks must be completed by 2010 at the latest."  

Our colleagues from UK are assessing how the current emissions pledges made by major economies compare with the low carbon pathway they developed for their Low Carbon Economy Index. The basic pledges of key economies would leave them some considerable way short of the low carbon pathway – they estimate a cumulative overspend on the global carbon budget of around 50 Gt CO2e by 2020, which is roughly equivalent to the aggregate emissions for the entire world for a year.

Intense political activity is expected to continue throughout the week, but at the end of it all, in the early hours of Saturday, 19 December, they expect the politicians to emerge from the final plenary session of COP15 and declare that this is a great day for the global environment. Then the easy part will be over. In the New Year, the priority will be translating this into a legal agreement and delivering on the pledges.

 Copenhagen Briefing: Half-time Score and Analysis (PDF File 67 KB)

Tobias's impressions
The conference is getting overcrowded. The COP15 organisation team has announced that it will be applying stricter admission rules to the conference, as the number of attendees has reached 15,000. What consequences this will have for me I am still figuring out. However, many equally important fringe events are taking place outside the main conference, in particular events geared to the business community, which would mean that my stay in Copenhagen would still be worthwhile even without admission to the main conference.

The last two days I have been running from one fringe event to the next. These have ranged from panel discussions between representatives of governmental bodies, NGOs and international private companies, to updates from leading scientific agencies (such at the British Met office) on climate change. I have attended interesting presentations and discussions on the inclusion of forestry in a post-Kyoto regime, the role of technology in mitigating climate change, and the technical issues surrounding future flexible mechanisms.

On Sunday I was walking through the city centre of Copenhagen. Almost every little square is has either an exhibition about the negative impacts of climate change or private companies displaying their solutions for how to tackle the problem. However, global warming seems not to apply to Copenhagen itself: It is freezing cold in the capital of Denmark. Nevertheless, this does not bother anybody up here it seems, and Copenhagen's bike armada continues to brave the elements. An astonishing detail – bike counters are installed on some of the bridges of Copenhagen – between 20,000 and 32,000 cyclists pass by every day (= around 1 cyclist every 3 seconds).

Below you will find a summary of the latest developments at COP15.

Negotiations
With only a short "working week" to go before more than 110 heads of state and government gather on Friday at the climate summit in Copenhagen, the hour of reckoning approaches with giant strides. Late on Saturday, COP15 president Connie Hedegaard described the procedural advances in the first six days as "fantastic" compared with the situation a couple of months ago. "The core discussions... have really started," she said, adding that "we still have a daunting task in front of us over the next few days."
Danish police stopped an unauthorised demonstration on a second day of street protests over climate change as environment ministers met for informal talks to advance negotiations on a new pact. The hundreds of demonstrators were outnumbered by police officers in riot gear who surrounded them. At least 200 activists were detained. Police said only 13 of the 968 people detained during and after a mass rally Saturday in Copenhagen remained in custody on Sunday. Of those, three – two Danes and a Frenchman – were set to be arraigned in court on preliminary charges of fighting with police.

Science, studies and announcements

• "If Copenhagen is going to be about an agreement that simply rides roughshod over Africa, then we will try to scuttle it, and I think we have reasonable assurance we can scuttle it if our concerns are not addressed," says Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi, who represents the African Union at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen, according to US government-funded Voice of America. Meles had received assurances from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao in a telephone conversation earlier this week that China won't sign any climate change agreement in Copenhagen unless African demands for compensation for the effects of global warming are met.
• The Bangladesh delegation demands allocation from any climate change adaptation fund in proportion to the percentage of its population exposed to climate change. State minister of environment and forest in Bangladesh Hasan Mahmud, who is leading the Bangladesh delegation at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, stressed that more or less one billion people are affected in the world due to climate change, and at least 15 percent of them live in Bangladesh.

Negotiations
The president of the UN climate conference, Connie Hedegaard, gave a midway status report on the conference on Saturday, saying that "we have made considerable progress over the course of the first week". According to delegates, negotiators have advanced on texts on how to supply new green technologies – like wind and solar power – to developing nations. Progress has also been made in promoting use of forests to soak up carbon dioxide. But there are still deep splits on issues such as raising funds for developing countries and sharing out the burden of greenhouse gas emissions curbs.
After one week of UN-led climate negotiations in Copenhagen, some money is finally on the table and a draft agreement has been circulated. Now the really hard bargaining begins.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of people joined an overwhelmingly peaceful march in winter-cold Copenhagen to demonstrate for action on climate change. The march towards the conference centre, where the UN climate change conference is being held, was part of the global Day of Action of the climate rallies from Australia to the United States. The police rounded up 968 in a preventive action against a group of youth activists. As of Sunday morning, only a handful were still detained.

Science, studies and announcements

• India is willing to curb its growth in carbon emissions, but stands firm on its rejection of a "peaking" year. Nor will India accept international scrutiny of voluntary domestic measures to tackle climate change, says environment minister Jairam Ramesh. Demands for a peaking year and for international scrutiny of all mitigation actions in developing countries are hot issues at the negotiating table in Copenhagen. Mainly because developed countries want to be sure that the larger developing countries also do their part to combat global warming. India has announced a voluntary target of reducing carbon intensity by 20 to 25 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. It is also planning to implement MRV (monitoring, reporting, and verification) on emissions, checked by parliament, civil society and media, Ramesh says.
• On Friday, Mexican president Felipe Calderon promised that his country will start reducing its greenhouse gases two years from now at its own expense – and continue thereafter, provided Mexico later receives financial and technological support from developed countries. "Mexico is committed to reducing CO2 emissions by 50 million tons a year starting in 2012 with its own means and funds," president Felipe Calderon said.
• Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping of Sudan – negotiator for the G-77 (the largest intergovernmental organisation of developing states in the United Nations – http://www.un.org) – is definitely not impressed by the EU's pledge to fund 7.2 billion euro over the next three years. The G-77 negotiator also criticised the EU proposal because it fails to address the issue of setting up long-term financing mechanisms. The EU estimates the need for funding to developing countries to be around 100 billion euro annually by 2020. The combination of public and private money from developed countries should be spent on adaptation to and mitigation of global warming in developing nations.
• According to a draft text, 50 African countries are considering demanding five percent of rich nations' GDPs for developing countries, plus deep emission cuts. Asking for five percent would be a very ambitious demand, compared with the funding so far mentioned at the climate negotiations. Five percent of the United States' GDP alone amounts to 722 billion US dollars (2008 figures). In comparison, the EU has calculated the developing countries' total need for climate funding at 130 billion dollars (100 billion euro) annually by 2020.
• The cuts in greenhouse gases offered at the 192-nation climate conference are "clearly not enough" to assure the world it will head off dangerous global warming, the IPCC's Thomas Stocker said. The Swiss physicist heads the IPCC's Working Group I, the climate science group that, among other things, assesses the impact that emissions – from fossil-fuel burning, deforestation and other sources – have on concentrations of global-warming gases in the atmosphere and then on temperatures. Stocker told reporters the IPCC-recommended target "may be too much to ask at this stage" – too politically daunting to achieve in the current annual conference. But he suggested climate talks should aim at longer-term commitments, over decades, not the short commitment periods envisioned in the annual conferences. Even limiting the temperature rise to 2 degrees C would not forestall serious damage, the IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri told reporters. "We would get sea-level rise, through thermal expansion alone, of 0.4 to 1.4 metres" (1.3 feet to 4.5 feet), he said. Climate science co-chair Stocker acknowledged that IPCC projections do not include the potential "tipping point" addition of trapped methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that would be released as permafrost thaws in the far north.
• The Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) comments the progress of the first week optimistically: a lot remains to be done until an agreement is reached, but the participants' determination to reach a comprehensive agreement is evident. Federal Councillor Moritz Leuenberger will arrive in Copenhagen with the special SBB train on 17 December 2009 and will address the plenary session of the Climate Change Conference on the same day (for the entire report click here).

Negotiations
A key working group under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came up with a six-page text on Friday (see PdF below). The draft may form the core of a new global agreement to combat climate change beyond 2012 when the present framework, the Kyoto Protocol, expires. However, most figures in the text are shown in brackets – meaning that there is not yet agreement on these specifics. Most importantly, the draft states that emissions should be halved worldwide by 2050 compared with 1990 levels, but it also suggests 80 percent and 95 percent reductions by that year as possible alternative options. Even the core goal of the deal is in brackets. Throughout 2009, a number of scientific and political conferences have called for global warming to be kept below two degrees Celsius. Still, the new draft mentions 1.5 degrees Celsius as a possible alternative goal. Besides the ultimate target of cutting emissions by 50 percent (or 80 percent, or 95 percent respectively) by 2050, the paper also puts forth an interim target by 2020 to be set. For emissions generated by developed nations, a target of 75 percent in reductions (or more – ranging up to 95 percent) is suggested. As for developing countries, the text calls for "substantial deviations" from present growth rates in emissions.

 Chair's Proposed Draft Text (PDF File 45 KB)

Science, studies and announcements

• EU leaders say they have agreed to commit 2.4 billion euro (3.6 billion US dollars) a year until 2012. The climate money is meant to go towards a global 10 billion US dollar annual fund for short-term help to poor countries, particularly in Africa, to adapt to the effects of global warming before a new climate treaty being negotiated in Copenhagen comes into force in 2012. Yvo de Boer, the UN climate chief, commented EU's announcement as encouraging to the negotiation process. The EU leaders also pledged to reduce their emissions by 30 percent of 1990 levels by 2020 – but are still demanding that other leading polluters make comparable commitments first.
• A new global climate change deal should take Russia's low greenhouse gas emissions in recent years into account, the Russian presidential advisor Alexander Bedritsky insisted on Friday. Russia wants some kind of reward in a Kyoto successor deal that would give it greater freedom in its emissions. Bedritsky said that Russia is emitting 34 percent less than in 1990 due to the post-Soviet industrial meltdown.
• In unusually blunt language, China's vice foreign minister He Yafei said on Friday that he was "shocked" by US climate envoy Todd Stern's comments earlier this week that China shouldn't expect any American public climate aid money, and that the US was not in any debt to the world for its historically high carbon emissions. "I don't want to say the gentleman is ignorant," He Yafei told reporters at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen. "I think he lacks common sense where he made such a comment vis-à-vis funds for China. Either lack of common sense or extremely irresponsible."

Tobias's impressions
Arriving early morning at the Copenhagen Airport, I get reminded of the reason for my trip: the COP15 climate change conference is present everywhere. It's pleasing to note that the PricewaterhouseCoopers brand is also very present, with the ”Climate Ready" posters all over the airport. Moving on to the metro, the picture does not change: newspapers, metro announcements and people on the metro are all talking about COP15.

When I finally arrive at the conference centre I feel as if I’m back at the airport, as I have to go through metal detectors, get searched and queue for ever to get my admission badge. But I’m beginning to understand the dimensions of it. The conference is huge! Thousands of politicians, reporters, activists, NGOs and businesspeople are all trying to find their way through the masses, which is quite a challenge. It's now more than obvious that climate change is not a topic for NGOs only. Many different parties are fighting for their interests, as a lot of money is at stake both for governments and private companies.

After attending the first fringe event on the future of the flexible mechanisms, I bump into an ”in-house demonstration”, with around 200 activists shouting "Don't kill Kyoto, climate change is now!" As I write this commentary I can also hear people singing in the background. But I do not want to give a false picture of COP15: this is not the whole story. At the same time, serious negotiations on climate change politics are happening. It's a great place for knowledge exchange and finding out about the latest trends and science. I am very curious what the next days will bring.

Wrapping up the first four days of COP15, here are the main developments:

Negotiations
A war on drafts has broken out at the Copenhagen climate conference. In response to an alleged Danish draft that was leaked, on Thursday China, India, South Africa and Brazil published a draft for a climate deal calling for a "binding" amendment to the Kyoto Protocol. Another climate draft has emerged. The senders are major emerging economies who call on rich countries to reduce their carbon emissions by more than 40 percent. The initiative, led by Beijing, was conceived as a rebuttal by developing countries to the "Copenhagen Agreement" draft allegedly written by the UN conference's host country and leaked by the Guardian newspaper on Tuesday this week (see Day 2). According to AFP, the "Copenhagen Accord", posted on the website of French daily Le Monde, embraces the objective of limiting global warming to two degrees celsius compared with pre-industrial levels. It calls on rich countries – committed to CO2 reductions of at least five percent by 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol – to "multiply by eight", and points out that reductions should be made "mainly through domestic measures" and not through the purchase of so-called "offsets" outside their borders in developing countries.

Science, studies and announcements

• In his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in Oslo, President Obama stressed the importance of confronting climate change: "Not only scientists and environmental activists call for action on climate change, but also military leaders understand that our common security hangs in the balance," said President Obama in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech.
• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will attend the UN climate conference in Copenhagen, the Kremlin announced Thursday. Medvedev will be joining the summit of some 110 heads of state and governments.
• The Group of 77, representing the majority of the world's developing countries, urges the US to join the Kyoto Protocol and commit to emission reductions comparable to those of other industrialised nations."The USA is the world's largest emitter historically and per capita. A reduction of four percent (compared to 1990) will not help save the world. We ask the USA to join the Kyoto Protocol and take on commitments comparable to Annex 1 countries (industrialised countries)," Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, chair of the G-77, told a press conference.
• Overtaking American golf star Tiger Woods, "Copenhagen" is now the number one search query on the world's leading internet search engine.

The third day of the UN climate conference in Copenhagen saw another political argument between the two biggest players – and polluters – China and the United States. The United States and the European Union (EU) are expected by the Chinese delegation to bring more substantial emission reduction targets to the Copenhagen climate talks. At a press conference on Tuesday, the deputy head of the Chinese delegation, Su Wei, said neither the US, the EU nor Japan had offered sufficient cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. According to Su Wei, the US target for emissions reduction and US financial support to developing nations are key to the success of the ongoing climate change conference. Su Wei rejected an EU proposal that the economically advanced developing nations commit to emissions reductions and pay part of the public financing of adapting to and mitigating climate change in developing countries.
Statements by Su Wei, deputy head of the Chinese COP15 delegation, on the United States' lack of ambitions were rejected by Todd Stern, president Barack Obama's climate change envoy, as he arrived on Wednesday at the conference in Copenhagen. "The country whose emissions are going up dramatically, really dramatically, is China," Todd Stern said according to Bloomberg – adding that "there can't be a new agreement without China".

Negotiations
While an alleged Danish draft proposal for a climate compromise caused furore among developing countries, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon expressed optimism that a robust agreement to combat climate change would be reached in Copenhagen. On the afternoon of the conference's second day, the Guardian, a British newspaper, published what it claimed to be "the Danish draft text of a new climate agreement". It gives 2020 as the year in which global emissions should peak, while "acknowledging that developed countries collectively have peaked and that the timeframe will be longer for developing countries." The text specifies that emissions from developed nations should be reduced by 80 percent by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. It also proposes that an interim reduction target for developed countries by 2020 be set – meeting a key demand from developing countries. A critical issue in the UN negotiations has been whether or not certain developing countries should undertake commitments. Under the present agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, all developing countries are exempted from obligations, but industrialised countries have stressed that this is not feasible in the future. Many developing countries still do not want to accept mitigation commitments, as they point out the historical responsibility for climate change of the industrialised world.
Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon predicted on Tuesday that a robust agreement to combat climate change will be reached in Copenhagen and implemented immediately. Ban said for the Copenhagen conference to be a success, the agreement must include ambitious reductions in carbon emissions by developed countries as well as ambitious actions by poorer developing countries to curb emissions. Rich nations must also provide financial support and technological assistance to help developing countries limit their emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change, including floods and drought, he said.

Science, studies and announcements

• The number of people affected by natural disasters has more than doubled in recent years. However, fears that millions of poor people will migrate to rich countries as a result of climate change have been greatly overstated, a new study from the International Organization for Migration shows. The study, which was released on the second day of the climate change conference in Copenhagen, estimates that between 25 million and one billion people could be driven from their homes over the next four decades, but only few of these "climate refugees" would be able to leave their countries because they lacked the means and the ability to travel to wealthier places, Reuters reports.
• The British Met Office has published station temperature records for over 1,500 of the stations that make up the global land surface temperature record. The data shows that global-average land temperatures have risen over the last 150 years and that global warming has increased since the 1970s.
• France is pushing for a political agreement at the climate conference in Copenhagen to include a tax on financial transactions to help developing countries, foreign minister Bernard Kouchner says. Kouchner says a very small tax – 0.005 percent on financial transactions – would help developing countries fight poverty, promote education and health, and meet the costs of combating climate change. Such a tax on all financial movements would be "impossible to feel", he says, explaining that it produces just 5 cents "on a movement of a thousand dollars, a thousand euros".

The largest and most important UN climate change conference in history opened on Monday, with diplomats from 192 nations warned that this could be the best, last chance for a deal to protect the world from calamitous global warming. "A deal is within our reach," the Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said in his opening speech, stressing that the talks will have to overcome deep distrust between rich and poor nations on how to share the burden of curbing emissions. Besides commitments to cut emissions, a major aspect of the negotiations is financing the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in developing countries. At the press briefing, the UN's top climate negotiator Yvo de Boer said that the talks are about the amount of money needed from the developed countries. Yet another important issue is "how do we allocate the still limited resources," according to him.

On 17 and 18 December, 110 heads of states and governments will come to Copenhagen in an attempt to seal a political global climate deal. If a deal is agreed, the UN will aim at transforming it into a legally binding text to replace the Kyoto Protocol, as its regulations of emissions expires in 2012.

Copenhagen is gearing up for what looks set to be record attendance at a COP. At the last count, over 100 heads of state/government had confirmed their attendance; the UNFCCC has suspended press and observer accreditation because the conference facilities are at full capacity; and many of the most interesting side events are already sold out.

In this final briefing on the morning the summit kicks off, our colleagues from PwC UK analyse the latest developments in climate politics and assess the prospects of a successful deal.

•  Copenhagen Briefing: Analysis of Key Issues (PDF File 42 KB)