{{item.title}}
{{item.text}}
{{item.text}}
The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its policy rate at 0.0%. The low interest rate environment remains broadly supportive of the real estate market, while geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty and rising long-term capital market interest rates represent the greatest risks to the economic outlook. In the rental housing market, the sideways movement observed at the beginning of the year has given way to a broad-based upward trend. Despite weaker immigration, the structural supply shortage persists, while the rejection of Zurich’s Housing Protection Initiative has increased planning and investment certainty for refurbishments and replacement developments. The office market continues to be characterised by declining rents for new leases and significant regional differences in demand, while the planned tightening of the Lex Koller is creating additional uncertainty on the investment side. Yield developments confirm the differing market conditions: multi-family properties continue to generate stable and broadly based total returns, whereas office properties show considerably greater regional variation. In the owner-occupied housing market, prices continued to rise, supported by low financing costs, limited supply and positive price expectations.
The information on market developments underlying the Immospektive can be found in FPRE’s Real Estate Meta-Analysis. References to FPRE charts are indicated in our text as “[1]”, etc.
At its monetary policy assessment of 18 June 2026, the Swiss National Bank left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0.0%. It has therefore remained at zero since the last interest rate cut in June 2025. At the same time, the SNB remains prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary in order to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. Inflation initially rose from 0.1% in February to 0.6% in May following the March assessment. This increase was mainly attributable to higher prices for petroleum products, while other goods and services contributed only marginally to the rise in inflation.¹ In July, annual inflation declined again to 0.4%, indicating that overall price pressures remain moderate.² According to the conditional inflation forecast, inflation is expected to increase slightly over the coming quarters before easing again somewhat in the first half of 2027.³ On an annual average basis, the SNB expects inflation of 0.6% in 2026, 0.6% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028 [9]. The forecast therefore remains within the range consistent with price stability throughout the entire forecast horizon.
Global inflation expectations remain elevated, and markets have adjusted to a somewhat more restrictive monetary policy stance abroad. In Switzerland, the yield curve for Confederation bonds shifted slightly upwards, while the Swiss franc weakened somewhat against the euro and the US dollar. As a result, monetary conditions eased marginally despite the unchanged policy rate.⁴ The current environment suggests that the SNB is likely to maintain its zero interest rate policy at its upcoming monetary policy assessments.
1 Schweizerische Nationalbank, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung vom 18. Juni 2026.
2 Bundesamt für Statistik, Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise im Juli 2026, 3. August 2026.
3 Schweizerische Nationalbank, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung vom 18. Juni 2026.
4 Schweizerische Nationalbank, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung Juni 2026: Zusammenfassung der Diskussion, 16. Juli 2026.
5 KOF Institut, KOF Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2026: Erdölpreisschock bremst Schweizer Wirtschaft, 17. Juni 2026.
6 Schweizerische Nationalbank, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung Juni 2026: Zusammenfassung der Diskussion, 16. Juli 2026.
The Swiss rental housing market regained significant momentum in the second quarter of 2026. Rents for new tenancies rose by 2.4% quarter-on-quarter across Switzerland and were 2.0% above the previous year’s level [23]. The subdued development observed at the beginning of the year therefore proved temporary. The increase was broad-based across all regions, indicating that excess demand persists despite the recently weaker demographic impetus.⁷
Immigration remains an important driver of demand, although net immigration of 18,800 people in the first quarter of 2026 was significantly lower than in the corresponding quarters of previous years [10]. The fact that rents for new tenancies have nevertheless resumed stronger growth suggests that rental market dynamics are increasingly being driven by limited supply. The Federal Housing Office also expects the vacancy rate, which fell to 1.0% in 2025, to decline further this year. A broad-based easing of the rental housing market is therefore not in sight.⁸
On the supply side, there are increasing signs of a recovery. BAK Economics expects residential construction to grow by 3.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027 [14]. The construction index of the Swiss Contractors’ Association rose by 3.2% year-on-year in building construction and by 4.3% in residential construction in the second quarter [15]. At the same time, production costs for multi-family properties increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year [16]. Higher construction activity improves the medium-term supply outlook, but given long planning and implementation periods, the existing demand overhang is likely to be reduced only gradually.
The rejection of Zurich’s Housing Protection Initiative by voters on 14 June 2026 is also significant. The initiative would have allowed municipalities with tight housing markets to impose temporary rent restrictions following replacement developments, conversions and renovations, as well as restrictions on the conversion of rental apartments into condominiums, thereby potentially constraining construction activity in the Zurich area over the longer term. From a real estate perspective, the decision reduces regulatory risk and increases planning and investment certainty for refurbishments, replacement developments and densification projects. At the same time, voters approved the more moderate counterproposal, which aims to avoid terminating existing tenancies where possible in larger construction projects and to provide affected tenants with better protection through information and support requirements.⁹
Source: FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026
7 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026.
8 Bundesamt für Wohnungswesen, Der Wohnungsmarkt auf einen Blick 2/2026.
9 NZZ, «Kantonale Wohnvorlagen: Stadtteile von Winterthur und Zürich sagen Ja, die SP gesteht Nein zur Wohnschutzinitiative ein», 14. Juni 2026.
10 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026.
11 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026.
12 FPRE, FPREview Q2 2026: Raumentwicklung zwischen Anspruch und Realitä.
13 NZZ, Die 10-Millionen-Initiative ist gescheitert, der Kampf um die Zuwanderung geht nahtlos weiter, 15. Juni 2026.
Following the sharp decline at the beginning of the year, the downward trend in Swiss office rents for new leases continued in the second quarter of 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Contract rents for new leases fell by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter across Switzerland. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, however, they were slightly higher, by 0.3% [35]. Overall, the office market therefore continues to move sideways, although the stable development at the national level masks considerable regional differences. The pattern points to selective demand that remains sensitive to changes in the economic environment.
The economic backdrop is providing only limited support for demand in the office market. Forecasts for 2026 point on average to real GDP growth of 0.8% and an unemployment rate of 3.1% [6, 7]. The development of job vacancies also presents a mixed picture: while the job vacancy index in real estate activities increased by 7.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, it declined by 15.6% in financial and insurance services and by 12.5% in information and technology services [8]. These office-intensive sectors are therefore not yet providing broad-based demand impulses.
The planned revision of the Lex Koller passed another procedural milestone with the conclusion of the consultation process on 15 July 2026. At the end of July, the Federal Office of Justice published the statements submitted as part of the consultation. These reveal significant differences between political actors, authorities and the business community. While some political parties and cities broadly support the proposal, other parties and numerous capital market participants oppose, in particular, the restrictions on exchange-traded indirect real estate investments. SIX has warned of lower market liquidity, less efficient price formation and higher capital costs. For the office real estate market, the proposed authorisation requirement for the acquisition of commercial properties purely as an investment therefore remains a regulatory risk. Whether, and in what form, it will ultimately be implemented remains uncertain.¹⁴
Source: FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026
14 Bundesamt für Justiz, Stellungsnahmen des Vernehmlassungsverfahrens (der Kantone, politischer Parteien, Organisationen und Private), 27. Juli 2026.
15 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
16 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
17 FPRE, FPREview Q2 2026: Raumentwicklung zwischen Anspruch und Realität.
The rolling annual total return on multi-family properties remained positive in all cantons in the second quarter of 2026. Across Switzerland, it amounted to around 8.4%, down from 12.2% in 2025. This development reflects a broad-based normalisation following the strong appreciation seen in the previous year. With the exception of Glarus, the provisional returns for 2026 were below the respective prior-year levels in all cantons. Current income continues to make a stable contribution to returns, while capital growth remains positive but is lower than in 2025 [51]. The residential segment continues to be supported by excess demand in the rental housing market and the ongoing increase in market values of multi-family properties. In the second quarter, these were 6.9% above the previous year’s level and 3.5% above the previous quarter.¹⁸
The return profile for office properties is considerably more heterogeneous. The rolling annual total return in 2026 stood at around 4.4%, below the previous year’s 6.0%. Cantonal total returns ranged from -5.8% to +17.0%. While current rental income continues to act as a stabilising factor, overall performance is primarily driven by changes in value. Across Switzerland, the market values of office properties were 4.2% above the previous year’s level and 0.5% above the previous quarter. At the same time, rents for new leases declined quarter-on-quarter. The combination of rising market values and falling rents for new leases underlines that returns are currently highly dependent on location, property quality, vacancy risk and the underlying valuation assumptions.¹⁹
Source: FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026
18 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
19 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
20 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
21 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 2. Quartal 2026.
Price growth in the Swiss owner-occupied housing market continued in the second quarter of 2026. Prices for condominiums rose by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter and were 4.7% above the previous year’s level [62]. The momentum was considerably stronger for single-family homes, with prices increasing by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and by 4.4% compared with the second quarter of 2025 [56]. Both owner-occupied housing segments therefore continued to record rising prices, with single-family homes gaining more strongly in the quarter under review, while short-term momentum in condominiums weakened. The development shows that demand for owner-occupied housing remains robust despite already high price levels. The market continues to be supported by low interest rates, limited new construction activity and the scarce supply of available properties. Prices are expected to increase over the next 12 months for both condominiums and single-family homes [59, 65]. SARON stood at -0.04% in June 2026 [19]. Interest rate forecasts also indicate that short-term rates are likely to remain close to zero for the time being [18]. At the same time, the volume of domestic mortgages reached CHF 1,239.7 billion in May 2026, 1.4% above the previous year’s level [22].
The timing of the tax reform has now been clarified. The Federal Council has set the reform of owner-occupied housing taxation to enter into force on 1 January 2029. From that date, imputed rental value on owner-occupied residential property will be abolished. At the same time, cantons will be able to introduce a special property tax on second homes as a compensatory measure. The decision provides greater planning certainty but is likely to have only a limited short-term impact on the market. For the time being, the reform remains primarily a medium-term factor, with effects likely to vary depending on the level of indebtedness, property condition and cantonal implementation.²²
Source: FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 2 Quartal 2026
22 RAIFFEISEN, Immobilien Schweiz, 2Q 2026.
23 FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026.
24 FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 2. Quartal 2026.
25 SNB, Financial Stability Report 2026.
26 Swiss Real Estate Datapool (SRED), SRED Newsletter, 2. Quartal 2026.
Our experts have many years of experience in the fields of economics, business administration, architecture and construction law and know the regional market conditions inside out. We accompany you throughout the entire life cycle of your property and offer advisory services in matters relating to property valuation, transactions and strategic challenges.
{{item.text}}
{{item.text}}
Sebastian Zollinger