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Interpretation of the FPRE real estate meta-analysis for May 2026

PwC Immospektive
Immospektive
  • Industry
  • 10 minute read
  • 13/05/26
Sebastian Zollinger

Sebastian Zollinger

Director, Head Real Estate Advisory, PwC Switzerland

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The SNB continues to hold the policy rate at 0.0%. Despite very low inflation and moderate economic growth a return to negative interest rates remains unlikely for the time being, meaning that the monetary policy environment remains stable and generally supportive for the property market. At the same time, external risks have increased. A further appreciation of the Swiss franc, geopolitical tensions and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could have a negative impact on the global economy and therefore also on the Swiss economy. The rental housing market stabilised in the first quarter of 2026 following the decline in the previous quarter, though underlying pressures remain. Although the slowdown in immigration is curbing short-term rental growth, there remains a supply shortage in the major cities. Additionally, the Zurich housing initiatives of 14 June 2026, in particular the Housing Protection Initiative, increase the regulatory risks for investments, renovations and the future expansion of supply. In the office market, the stabilisation has lost momentum again, rents for new tenancies have fallen and the trend remains highly differentiated by region. The yield performance reflects this segmentation. Multi-family units continue to generate robust, broadly positive total annual returns, while office properties remain more volatile and subject to an increased risk of changes in value outside of the strongest locations. Residential property prices are rising again, driven primarily by owner-occupied housing. The low interest-rate environment, expectations of rising prices and the abolition of the imputed rental value are fuelling demand, while the implementation of the reform at cantonal level continues to create uncertainty.

Information on the market developments on which Immospektive is based can be found in FPRE’s real estate meta-analysis. References to FPRE graphics in our text are marked [1] etc.

Focus on monetary policy: SNB holds interest rates at zero, optimism on the capital markets despite considerable economic risks

During its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0.0%. Since the last interest rate cut in June 2025, the key interest rate has therefore remained at zero. The SNB thereby confirms its course of stabilising monetary policy in an environment where interest rates remain very low. As expected, inflation has risen slightly since the last assessment. After 0.0% was recorded in November 2025, annual inflation in February 2026 was 0.1%, which is mostly due to higher goods inflation. Due to the rise in energy prices, inflation is likely to increase more strongly in the next few quarters.1 However, inflationary pressure in the medium term has hardly changed since the last assessment. The conditional inflation forecast stands at an annual average of 0.5% for 2026, 0.5% for 2027 and 0.6% for 2028 [9], and is therefore within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon. Although the international environment was solid in the fourth quarter, it is still subject to considerable uncertainty. Inflation remained high in the USA, while in the euro zone it remained close to the target value of 2.0%. At the same time, uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased significantly with the conflict in the Middle East. Higher energy prices, potential supply chain problems and a further appreciation of the Swiss franc could weigh on the Swiss economy.2 The baseline scenario does not envisage any deviation from the zero interest rate policy, and despite inflation being very low, the KOF Institute assumes that the SNB will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.0% over the entire forecast period.3

The international environment remains marked by moderate growth and considerable trade and geopolitical uncertainties. The focus is on the reorganisation of US customs policy and the significantly more strained geopolitical environment caused by the war between the USA/Israel and Iran. In the KOF Institute’s baseline forecast, the economic consequences for Switzerland remain limited as energy prices are likely to normalise again after the initial shock. The global economy continues to expand moderately. Economic activity in the euro zone was slightly better than expected in the final quarter, while the USA has recently lost momentum. Growth in China remained stable, with expansion continuing to be driven primarily by investment and foreign trade. Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc has strengthened significantly across the board. As well as uncertainty regarding trade policy, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is reinforcing the ‘safe haven’ effect. Even though the appreciation of the Swiss franc has a dampening effect on import prices and therefore inflationary pressure, it is also weighing on the competitiveness of export-oriented companies.4

SNB expects GDP growth of around 1% in 2026 and around 1.5% in 2027. The economic outlook remains uncertain in the short term, though the SNB expects things to recover slightly in the medium term. The main risk for the Swiss economy remains developments in the global economy, particularly if the situation in the Middle East puts a stronger brake on global economic activity or triggers a further appreciation of the Swiss franc.5 According to the Raiffeisen interest rate forecast in May 2026, Switzerland should also only be slightly affected by a rise in inflation driven by energy prices due to its comparatively low energy dependency.6

Overall, there is much to suggest that zero interest rates will remain in place for a prolonged period of time, since inflation continues to remain within a range that is consistent with price stability and monetary policy also supports economic development. At the same time, the outlook remains vulnerable to external shocks. The baseline forecasts assume that energy prices will normalise again following the initial increase. Accordingly, a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not reflected on the capital markets and would constitute a significant downside risk both for the global economy and the Swiss economy. The low-interest rate environment therefore remains fundamentally supportive for the property market and helps stabilise market activity, but additional monetary policy stimuli are not expected for the time being.

1 SNB, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung vom 19. März.
2 SNB, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung vom 19. März.
3 KOF, Konjunkturbericht, Frühjahr 2026.
4 KOF, Konjunkturbericht, Frühjahr 2026.
5 SNB, Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung vom 19. März.
6 Raiffeisen, Newsletter Zinsprognose Mai 2026.

Rental housing market: slowing rental price momentum, regulatory risks for the Zurich housing market

In the first quarter of 2026, the Swiss rental housing market remained broadly stable while continuing to face sustained pressure. Following a slight decline in rents for new tenancies in the previous quarter, these have now stabilised again and increased slightly by +0.1% compared with the previous quarter. Rents were +1.3% higher compared with the previous year [23]. This means that rental growth has slowed considerably compared with the sharp increases seen in previous years, though the structural shortage in the market has not been resolved.

While immigration continues to be an important driver of demand, the net inflow of 18,800 people in the first quarter of 2026 was less exceptional than in previous quarters. As a result, the short-term pace of growth in new rental agreements has slowed slightly [10, 11]. On the supply side, the first signs of recovery are increasing. Residential construction activity is expected to grow again in 2026, and the construction index of the Swiss Association of Building Constructors shows a positive trend in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in residential construction [14, 15].

There is also an increasing pressure to act at the regulatory level. The three Zurich housing initiatives of 14 June are an expression of the increasing political response to the housing shortage in Zurich and are emblematic of the supply shortage in urban centres throughout Switzerland.7 The Housing Protection Initiative in particular could potentially have a major impact on the Zurich housing market. It is moving closer to regulatory models that already exist in the cantons of Basel-Stadt, Geneva and Vaud. Experience from Basel-Stadt shows that interventions of this nature slow down planning applications and refurbishment activity and therefore reduce supply further. If the initiative is passed, it is likely to have far-reaching negative consequences for property investments, the renewal of the housing stock, the long-term quality of housing and, ultimately, the attractiveness of Zurich and Winterthur. If refurbishments, conversions and redevelopment projects become harder to plan from a regulatory perspective and less economically attractive, projects could be postponed or cancelled altogether. Beyond reducing future housing supply, local construction and trades businesses would also be affected as fewer building and renovation projects would be commissioned.8

In the first quarter of 2026, the Swiss rental housing market for new tenancies stabilised following the decline in the previous quarter. Compared with the previous quarter, rents for new tenancies in existing apartments increased by an average of +0.4%, while rents for newly built apartments continued to decline slightly at −0.2%. This does not indicate a broad-based easing of market pressure, but rather a stabilisation following the previous correction. Year on year, trends remain positive, particularly in the existing building segment. Rents for new tenancies in existing apartments were +2.6% above the previous year’s level, while new-build apartments remained broadly stable at +0.2%. This underlines the fact that although rental growth momentum has clearly weakened, the excess demand in the existing housing stock remains noticeable.9

A look at the cantonal data illustrates the continued strong regional variation. In the older housing segment, quarterly increases in rents for new tenancies were recorded particularly in the cantons of Glarus (+1.8%), Appenzell Ausserrhoden (+1.7%), Nidwalden and Thurgau (both +1.1%) and Solothurn (+0.9%). By contrast, declines were recorded in Schaffhausen (−1.1%), Zurich (−1.0%), Geneva (−0.6%), Bern, Basel-Stadt and Basel-Landschaft (all −0.4%), among others. Year on year, price developments in existing housing remained positive in most cantons. Particularly strong increases were recorded in Zug (+9.4%), Schaffhausen (+7.9%), Nidwalden (+5.0%) and Schwyz (+4.9%), while Jura (−2.0%) and Grisons (−0.6%) recorded a downward trend.10

In the new-build segment, cantonal developments were more subdued. Positive quarterly figures were mainly observed in Glarus (+1.6%), Solothurn and Thurgau (both +0.9%) and Valais (+0.5%). At the same time, new-build rents fell in several larger markets, including the cantons of Zurich (−1.1%), Basel-Stadt (−1.0%) and Basel-Landschaft (−0.8%), as well as Bern, Uri, Geneva and Jura (all −0.6%). On a yearly basis, the picture remains mixed: the cantons of Zug (+5.8%) and Schaffhausen (+2.6%) were up significantly, while Jura (−4.4%), Grisons (−3.5%), Neuchâtel (−2.1%) and Basel-Stadt, Basel-Landschaft and Uri (all −1.7%) reported declining annual values. Overall, this confirms that the short-term stabilisation does not equate to market pressure easing across the board, but rather varies significantly depending on the location, segment and starting point.11

Although construction activity is showing early signs of recovery, its effect in easing market pressure will only become evident after a time lag. Growth of +3.8% is expected for residential construction in 2026, while the forecast for 2027 is +2.0% [14]. The Swiss Construction Index rose by +2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous year, with building construction increasing by +3.9% and residential construction by +6.0% [15]. This recovery improves the supply outlook in the medium term, but is likely to only partially ease the existing excess demand in the short term.

Rental housing market – development Q1 2026

Source: FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026

7 Kanton Zürich, Regierungsratsbeschluss Nr. 105/2026, 06.02.2026.
8 Baublatt, Studie: Die Auswirkungen der Wohnschutzinitiative im Kanton Basel-Stadt, Januar 2025.
9 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
10 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
11 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.

Office space market: decline in new lease rents in a subdued economic environment and the potential tightening of the Lex Koller law

In the first quarter of 2026, the stabilisation observed in the Swiss office space market at the end of 2025 lost momentum again. Contract office rents for new tenancies fell by −3.0% compared with the previous quarter, and were −0.6% lower year on year [35]. This indicates that the office market is significantly weaker than in the previous quarter, and remains characterised by subdued demand for additional space. Regulatory risks are also becoming more prominent. On 15 April 2026, the Federal Council opened the consultation on tightening the Lex Koller law. The proposals include prohibiting foreign investor from acquiring commercial property purely for investment purposes. In addition, listed shares in residential property companies as well as regularly traded shares in real estate funds and real estate SICAVs will again fall under the scope of Lex Koller. For the property market, tightening the law in this way would increase regulatory complexity, limit the pool of potential investors and restrict liquidity as well as people’s willingness to invest, particularly in the case of indirect property investments and commercial investment properties.12

The labour market environment remains only moderately supportive of demand for office space. Although the KOF Institute expects employment to recover in 2026, growth rates will remain below historical averages. Full-time equivalent employment is expected to rise by +0.6% and the number of people in employment to rise by +0.5%, while the SECO unemployment rate is projected to average 3.1% in 2026. Against this backdrop, demand for office space is expected to remain either steady or slightly subdued. In addition, investment activity also remains subdued despite initial signs of recovery, and uncertainty continues to weigh on decisions regarding expansion and location.13

In the first quarter of 2026, the Swiss office space market for new tenancies continued to show a highly mixed picture. Only a few cantons recorded price growth during the quarter. The strongest rent increases for new tenancies were in Ticino (+4.6%), Solothurn (+4.1%) and Zug (+3.8%), while Thurgau (+0.8%) also recorded a slight increase. In most other cantons, however, rents for new tenancies fell. Particularly sharp falls were seen in Basel-Stadt (−3.3%), Schaffhausen (−3.1%), Lucerne (−3.0%), Basel-Landschaft (−2.8%), Grisons (−2.3%) and Zurich (−2.2%). More moderate falls were recorded in Geneva (−1.9%), Schwyz and Neuchâtel (both −1.5%), Vaud (−1.1%), Aargau (−0.6%), Fribourg (−0.5%), Bern and St. Gallen (both −0.3%).14

A look at year-on-year growth trends (Q1 2025 – Q1 2026) underlines the strong segmentation of the office space market. Significant annual growth was recorded in Solothurn (+10.6%), Thurgau (+8.8%), Zug (+8.1%), Neuchâtel (+6.8%) and Ticino (+4.4%), while Vaud (+1.3%) and Aargau (+0.6%) were also in positive territory. In contrast, there were sharp declines in Schaffhausen (−13.1%), Grisons (−11.6%), Lucerne (−8.7%), Basel-Stadt (−4.8%), Schwyz (−4.6%), Fribourg (−2.8%) and Basel-Landschaft (−2.6%). St. Gallen (−1.6%), Zurich and Bern (both −1.0%) and Geneva (−0.6%) were also slightly below the previous year’s level.15

Structurally, the office space market remains characterised by a clear preference for quality and location. Central, flexible and modern office spaces continue to perform better, while properties that are less well connected or are functionally outdated are coming under increasing pressure. Vacancy rates in major cities remain an important indicator of absorption capacity. According to JLL they stood at 3.9% in Zurich and 3.8% in Geneva in the first quarter of 2026, which is slightly below the previous quarter. Wüest Partner reports a nationwide vacancy rate of 5.4% for the fourth quarter of 2025 [40]. This indicates that supply levels remain significantly higher than in residential markets, while demand continues to be focused primarily on the best locations and properties.

Office space market – development Q1 2026

Source: FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026

12 Federal Council, The Federal -Council plans to further restrict property purchases by foreign residents, 15 April 2026.
13KOF, Economic Forecasts Report, Spring 2026.
14 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
15 FPRE, Marktmieten- und Baulandindizes von Renditeimmobilien Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.

Return performance: multi-family units resilient, higher volatility in office properties

In the first quarter of 2026, the (rolling) total annual return on multi-family units remained positive across all cantons, but things normalised in comparison with the exceptionally strong year in 2025. Most cantons recorded solid returns around the 6% to 8% range. Residential investments therefore remain attractive, with an average (rolling) annual total return for multi-family units of 6.6% (comprising a cash flow return of 3.1% and a return on investment of 3.5%). This continues to be supported by structurally strong demand for rental housing, limited supply and stable recurring income. The decline compared with the previous year is primarily attributable to a normalisation of the returns on investment following the strong gains seen in 2025, while the cash flow return continues to provide a stabilising effect.16

The office property market continues to present a mixed picture. In the first quarter of 2026, the average cantonal (rolling) annual total return stood at around 4.2% (comprising a cash flow return of 3.4% and return on investment of 0.8%), and thus below the 2025 figure of 6.0%. Although recurring income remains an important yield-supporting factor, it was not always able to offset partly negative performances in some individual markets. Negative annual total returns continued to be observed in peripheral and structurally weaker office markets in particular, reflecting the persistently challenging market situation in the office segment.17

A look at cantonal developments in the (rolling) annual total return for multi-family units again showed broadly positive returns in the first quarter of 2026. The canton of Glarus led the way with +9.0%, followed by Solothurn and Thurgau with +7.7% each, Nidwalden (+7.6%), Aargau (+7.4%) and Schaffhausen, Valais and Neuchâtel with +7.3% each. Obwalden (+7.2%), St. Gallen and Ticino (both +7.0%), Zug and Vaud (both +6.9%) as well as Lucerne and Fribourg (both +6.7%) also posted robust returns. The lowest, though still positive, total returns were observed in Basel-Stadt (+4.8%), Jura (+5.0%) and Uri (+5.6%). Although the returns are lower compared with 2025, the residential segment remains distinctly stable.18 According to estimates by leading Swiss valuation firms, the average minimum discount rate (net, real) for multi-family units stood at 1.86% as at May 2026, and therefore remained at a low level [32].

By contrast, developments in the (rolling) annual total return of office properties are significantly more varied and volatile. Very strong returns in the first quarter of 2026 were achieved in Solothurn (+16.9%), Zug (+15.6%), Ticino (+12.0%), Thurgau (+11.0%) and Neuchâtel (+8.7%). Solid performances were also recorded in Vaud (+6.3%), Aargau (+5.5%), Bern (+5.4%) and Fribourg (+5.1%). Negative total returns on office properties, however, were observed in Schaffhausen (−7.0%), Grisons (−3.3%), Lucerne (−2.7%), Basel-Stadt (−1.3%) and Valais (−1.2%). The shift compared with 2025 is noticeable. Whereas, in 2025, especially strong total returns on office properties were recorded in Valais (+24.0%), Thurgau (+19.9%), St. Gallen (+16.0%), Neuchâtel (+15.5%) and Geneva (+14.3%), in the first quarter of 2026 the strongest gains were concentrated in Solothurn, Zug and Ticino.19

This trend continues to point to higher risks for office properties outside prime locations. While multi-family units benefit from structural housing shortages and stable recurring income, office properties remain considerably more dependent on regional demand, vacancy risks and asset quality. The cash flow returns cannot always compensate for the sometimes significant changes in value, underlining the ongoing high level of uncertainty in the office segment.

Return development Q1 2026

Source: FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 1. Quartal 2026

16 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 1. Quartal 2026.
17 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 1. Quartal 2026.
18 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 1. Quartal 2026.
19 FPRE, Marktindizes für Renditeimmobilien, 1. Quartal 2026.

Residential property: price momentum picks up again amid rising price expectations

Price momentum in the Swiss residential property market continued in the first quarter of 2026. Unlike the previous quarter, growth became spread more widely again. Owner-occupied housing continued to perform particularly strongly, with prices rising by +2.1% compared with the previous quarter and +6.0% higher year on year [62]. Owner-occupied housing therefore remains the more dynamic submarket within residential property. Single-family units also resumed a clear upward trend. Prices increased by +1.9% compared with the previous quarter, while year-on-year growth amounted to a more moderate +1.1% [56]. This highlights how demand for residential property remains robust despite prices being high, with owner-occupied housing continuing to benefit more from its relative affordability compared with single-family units. SARON stood at −0.05% in April 2026, and therefore remained slightly negative [19].

A look at the demand suggests that the decision to abolish the imputed rental value will fundamentally increase the tax attractiveness of owner-occupied residential property. On 1 April, the Federal Council decided that the reform would enter into force on 1 January 2029.20 The debate since the vote has therefore turned towards how it will be implemented. While home-owner associations are calling for the reform to be introduced sooner, mountain cantons in particular have demanded more time to develop a possible property tax on second homes.21,22 In the current low-interest rate environment, the reform is generally expected to support demand for residential property, although the effect will vary greatly depending on the debt ratio, the condition of the property and how the reform is implemented by the cantons. How the new regulation is to be implemented at cantonal level in particular remains unresolved at present, which could create additional momentum in the residential property market in certain areas.

Cantonal differences remained pronounced in the first quarter of 2026. Quarter on quarter, owner-occupied housing prices rose particularly sharply in Schaffhausen (+3.7%), Fribourg (+3.2%), Neuchâtel and Jura (both +3.0%) and Zug (+2.9%). Obwalden (+2.6%), Zurich (+2.5%) and Berne (+2.4%) also recorded above-average growth. At −0.4%, Schwyz was the only canton to record a slight decline compared with the previous quarter. Year on year, price growth in owner-occupied housing remained very strong. The highest increases were recorded in Lucerne (+10.5%), Obwalden (+10.0%), Basel-Stadt (+9.0%), Uri (+8.6%) and Appenzell Innerrhoden (8.5%) and Thurgau (+8.5%). Zurich (+8.1%), Berne (+8.3%) and Zug (+8.2%) were also well above the Swiss average. Only Ticino recorded comparatively weak annual growth at +0.7%.23

There was also a broad recovery in single-family units compared with the previous quarter. Particularly strong price growth was seen in Schaffhausen and Geneva (both +3.4%), followed by Zug (+2.7%), Appenzell Innerrhoden (+2.5%) and Appenzell Ausserrhoden (+2.2%), as well as Uri and Nidwalden (both +2.1%). Lucerne (+2.0%) and Aargau (+1.9%) also recorded solid growth. In a year-on-year comparison, however, the picture remained much more mixed than for owner-occupied housing. The strongest increases were observed in Zug (+7.3%), Basel-Stadt (+6.6%), Geneva (+5.3%) and Lucerne (+4.7%). By contrast, prices fell in Ticino (−4.3%), Obwalden (−2.0%), Nidwalden (−0.5%) and Grisons (−0.1%). This underlines the fact that although demand for single-family units has increased again in the short term, the long-term trends show much more variation between cantons than with owner-occupied housing.24

A look at price trends in the canton of Ticino: the negative annual performance posted by single-family units in Ticino is probably less indicative of a renewed market weakness in the current quarter, but rather a delayed correction following high values in the previous year. At the same time, demand in the single-family unit segment remains structurally less broad-based than in the high-growth areas in German-speaking Switzerland. The weaker population growth in Ticino and the outmigration of young adults for education or employment reasons also had a dampening effect. Taken together, this indicates a regional cooling trend that particularly affects traditional family homes located outside the most dynamic labour market hubs.25

Domestic mortgage volumes continued to increase and reached approximately CHF 1,249.7 billion in February 2026. This corresponds to a year-on-year increase of +3.2% [22]. In May 2026, SARON mortgages stood at 0.74%, while fixed-rate mortgages were quoted at 1.48% for three-year maturities, 1.59% for five-year maturities and 1.84% for ten-year maturities [21]. Current interest-rate forecasts also assume that SARON will remain close to 0.0% until 2027, while yields on ten-year Swiss government bonds are expected to remain in the 0.4% to 0.5% range [18].

Price expectations also remain positive. The price expectation index continues to point to mostly rising expectations both for single-family units and owner-occupied housing over the next twelve months [59, 65]. According to the latest evaluation by the Swiss Real Estate Datapool (SRED), market liquidity normalised at the start of the year following the extremely strong previous quarter. Although the number of properties financed fell compared with the previous quarter it remained above the level seen in the previous year, which is indicative of continued robust demand in the residential property market. Transaction prices for owner-occupied housing remained stable on average across Switzerland, with the average transaction price standing at CHF 940,000. Prices for single-family units continued to show a slight rise, with an average transaction price of CHF 1,280,000. Overall, the SRED analysis therefore suggests that the residential property market remains liquid, albeit at a slightly slower pace than at the end of last year.26

Price development – owner-occupied housing Q1 2026

Source: FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 1 Quartal 2026

20 Bundesrat: Bundesrat setzt Abschaffung des Eigenmietwerts auf 2029 in Kraft, 1. April 2026.
21 HEV, Inakzeptabler Bundesrats-Entscheid zur Abschaffung des Eigenmietwerts, 15. April 2026.
22 SRF, Gebirgskantone wollen Eigenmietwert nicht vor 2030 abschaffen, 7. Februar 2026.
22 FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
23 FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
25 FPRE, Transaktionspreis- und Baulandindizes für Wohneigentum Schweiz, 1. Quartal 2026.
26 Swiss Real Estate Datapool (SRED), SRED Newsletter, 1. Quartal 2026.

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