Swiss economic outlook slumps – AI poses a particular threat to junior employees – Tariffs less of a burden

Zurich/Davos – The latest Swiss edition of PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey shows that only 37% of Swiss CEOs expect Swiss GDP to grow in 2026 – half as many as last year (68%). This represents a dramatic deterioration in the growth outlook. The reasons are complex: rising geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic volatility and regulatory hurdles at regional level.

Respondents are also less optimistic about the growth of their own companies: only about a quarter (26%) expect revenue to increase over the next twelve months – the lowest level since 2020. They are slightly more optimistic about the next three years (32%), but even in this regard they are well below the global average (49%).

While just below one-third (31%) of the CEOs surveyed expect profit margins to fall as a result of US tariff policy, tariffs are perceived as a surprisingly small burden by the vast majority of Swiss companies surveyed. 59% do not expect tariffs to have any negative impact on their profit margins, while approximately two-thirds of respondents (65%) state that geopolitical risks, including tariffs, will have little impact on their investment decisions in the coming year.

“Switzerland is proving to be resilient in dealing with tariffs. We are much more concerned about sluggish economic growth and, above all, fundamental questions about how we deal with technological change – especially AI,” says Gustav Baldinger, CEO of PwC Switzerland.

AI costs jobs – career starters most affected
At the heart of these concerns lies artificial intelligence as a driver of technological disruption and labour market changes: 42% of Swiss CEOs predict significant job losses over the next three years, especially among junior employees. Mid-level employees will be less affected (25%). By contrast, most CEOs (76%) expect stable figures among senior roles, including management – only 8% anticipate a decline in employment at this level.

The most important question preoccupying CEOs worldwide – also in connection with AI – is whether they are driving transformation forward rapidly enough to keep pace with technological change. While more than half of CEOs in Switzerland (54%) are concerned with this issue, the global average is significantly lower (42%). The question of whether their companies’ own innovative strength will meet the demands of the future is also keeping more CEOs in Switzerland on their toes than in the rest of the world.

In a global comparison, it is striking that Swiss companies achieve cost reductions through AI similar to those realised in other countries (55% vs 49% worldwide), yet generate significantly lower revenue growth (only 15% vs 30% internationally). This means that they are still lagging behind in terms of sustainably monetising AI. Moreover, only 44% have a clearly defined AI transformation strategy (51% globally) and only 26% are able to attract highly qualified AI experts (as opposed to 42% worldwide). In Switzerland, AI is more frequently deployed in a supporting role, rather than as a means of directly increasing demand and revenue.

Cyber risks and global uncertainties are the biggest risks
Cybercrime remains the biggest threat, with 28% of respondents citing it as such – a clear warning sign in an increasingly digitised world. Swiss CEOs’ perception of risk has increased in relation to geopolitical conflicts (21%) and technological disruption (17%) – the latter having jumped from 10% a year ago. This clearly demonstrates how enormously the pressure on local companies has grown. Although climate change has gained ground as a risk factor compared to the previous three years, it ranks only second to last, at 10%.

Innovation, resilience and the future viability of the Swiss economy

Innovation is a key success factor for 44% of Swiss CEOs. Companies with established innovation capabilities demonstrably achieve higher revenues with new products and services. At the same time, there is significantly lower tolerance for innovation risks in Switzerland (12%) compared to the global average (25%). This caution could become an Achilles heel: only 15% of Swiss CEOs halt underperforming innovation projects, compared to 24% worldwide.

Nevertheless, Switzerland is the world’s most innovative country whose companies are able to survive even in a volatile global environment thanks to their great adaptability and resilience. However, in order to maintain this leading position and continue to grow, Swiss companies must become more agile and willing to take risks – specifically, by focusing more strongly on the opportunities that technological change offers.

“This requires regulatory simplification in order to remain attractive as a business location,” says Gustav Baldinger. “Switzerland is at a critical turning point: only those who dare to take the leap into the technological future can continue to grow. Hesitation is becoming a risk that will weaken our location in the long term,” Baldinger adds.

About the Global CEO Survey 2026
The 29th Global CEO Survey was conducted between 30 September and 7 November 2025. A total of 4,454 CEOs from 95 countries worldwide, including 81 from Switzerland, were surveyed online. The Swiss participants come from various industries and companies of different sizes, with 79% listed on the stock exchange. The global study results can be found here: http://www.pwc.com/ceosurvey.