M&A industry trends, globally and in Switzerland

Global M&A activity is on course for its strongest years since 2021, with deal value expected to reach approximately US$4 trillion in 2026. However, the recovery is being driven by a relatively small number of very large transactions. While total deal value is projected to increase by around 13% year-on-year, overall deal volumes are expected to fall by a similar margin, to approximately 42,000 transactions.

Large-scale transactions continue to drive the market. Megadeals – transactions valued at more than US$5 billion – now represent nearly half of global M&A value, up from 39% in 2025 and just 26% in 2024.

Regional developments further highlight the increasingly uneven nature of the M&A market. In the first half of 2026, the Americas generated 61% of global deal value despite accounting for only 28% of deal volume. This was driven largely by US megadeals, whose share of total US deal value continued to increase even as transaction volumes declined.

EMEA also strengthened its contribution to global deal value, supported by several large transactions, while maintaining a relatively stable share of overall deal activity. By contrast, Asia Pacific recorded a higher share of global deal volume, reflecting stronger activity in China, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia. However, the region's share of global deal value declined, as average deal sizes remained smaller and megadeal activity was less pronounced than in the Americas and EMEA.

1. AI is driving investment beyond traditional M&A

The rapid expansion of AI is reshaping investment priorities. Capital is increasingly flowing into data centres, energy, connectivity and other infrastructure required to support the next wave of AI adoption. Many of these investments are being made through partnerships, joint ventures and minority stakes rather than traditional acquisitions.

New business models are also emerging. In May 2026, Anthropic, Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman and Goldman Sachs launched a new enterprise AI services company, illustrating how AI is not only changing which assets attract investment, but also how investors seek to create value across portfolios.

For dealmakers, the implications are significant. AI is creating demand for infrastructure and industrial assets while competing with traditional M&A for capital, management attention and risk appetite. This trend is part of a much larger investment story: PwC's Global Infrastructure Outlook 2025–50 projects cumulative infrastructure spending of approximately US$150 trillion over the next 25 years, representing an almost 60% increase in annual spending compared with 2025 levels. The AI buildout is expected to capture a growing share of this investment.

2. AI is creating new winners and losers

AI continues to influence where dealmakers deploy capital. Investor interest remains strong in sectors supporting the AI ecosystem, including data centres, energy, connectivity, engineering and industrial infrastructure. By contrast, buyers are becoming more selective in sectors where AI may disrupt business models, including parts of software, IT services and professional services.

At the same time, megadeals are no longer confined to technology. While major investments in Anthropic and OpenAI continue to drive activity, large transactions such as NextEra Energy’s combination with Dominion Energy, McCormick’s proposed combination with Unilever's food business, Sysco’s acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot and KONE’s combination with TK Elevator highlight growing demand for scale, resilience and strategic positioning across industries.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and evolving competitive dynamics, successful dealmakers will be those that can identify a clear strategic rationale, test the value case rigorously and move decisively when the right opportunities arise.

3. More capital, tougher conditions

The outlook for dealmaking is becoming more complex. Demand for capital continues to rise as companies invest in AI infrastructure, energy security, defence and broader infrastructure projects. At the same time, slower economic growth, persistent inflation and rising sovereign debt could increase financing costs and make capital harder to access.

So far, financial markets have remained resilient. However, higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruption to energy markets could create a more challenging environment for transactions, particularly in regions with weaker growth prospects.

Additional pressure points are emerging. Private equity firms continue to face a growing backlog of ageing portfolio companies, while private credit – an increasingly important source of deal financing – may face its first major test in a more difficult market environment. Despite these challenges, investor appetite remains strong, with 80% of portfolio managers expecting allocations to private credit to increase.

For dealmakers, the message is clear: financing assumptions should be more conservative, downside scenarios more rigorous and capital deployment more disciplined than in recent years.

AI is beginning to reshape the M&A process from end to end. What started as a tool for analysing large volumes of data is evolving into a technology that can support increasingly complex tasks, from target screening and due diligence to valuation modelling and value creation planning.

The pace of change has accelerated rapidly over the past 18 months as AI systems have become more capable of reasoning and problem-solving. Forward-looking deal teams are already using AI to review documents, identify risks and synthesise commercial, operational and financial information more efficiently than traditional approaches.

Yet the future of dealmaking will not be fully automated. While AI can accelerate analysis and surface insights, successful transactions still depend on trust, judgement and experience. The most effective dealmakers will be those who combine AI-enabled capabilities with human expertise to make better and faster decisions.

The first half of the year has reinforced several important themes. Scale matters. AI is reshaping both investment priorities and deal execution. Capital is becoming increasingly contested as companies balance acquisitions, infrastructure investments and transformation initiatives.

Given these dynamics, dealmakers should consider six key questions:

• Are we on the right side of AI-driven change, and do we have the capabilities needed to compete?
  
• How will AI affect a target company’s business model, valuation and long-term growth prospects?
  
• Where can greater scale create a competitive advantage, and where might it introduce unnecessary complexity or risk?
  
• Is our capital allocation strategy keeping pace with the growing demands of AI, infrastructure and transformation investment?
  
• How resilient is our financing plan if growth slows, interest rates remain elevated or liquidity tightens?
  
• Are we prepared for a deal process that is becoming faster, more data-driven and increasingly AI-enabled?

Switzerland’s M&A landscape remains resilient amid rising global uncertainties.

1. Stability and capital strength remain key advantages

Switzerland’s predictable political, legal and regulatory framework – combined with strong corporate balance sheets and a stable financial system – continues to attract both domestic and international investors. In a world where boards are highly selective, ‘certainty of close’ has become a competitive advantage: governance quality, clear equity stories and well-prepared seller processes matter more than ever.

2. The strong franc can support outbound capability buys

A strong Swiss franc can enhance the purchasing power of Swiss acquirers, particularly for technology and biotech capability acquisitions priced in USD. The practical implication: Swiss buyers can be more competitive in auctions – provided they can credibly underwrite integration and value creation, and hedge FX exposure appropriately.

3. Resilience in a two-speed global market

As global M&A increasingly favours scale, strong balance sheets and strategic clarity, many Swiss corporates are well positioned to operate at the upper end of the market, even as mid‑market activity remains cautious and financing stays selective. Sponsors with ‘dry powder’ will remain active, but will demand cleaner equity stories, stronger cash conversion and clearer exit routes.

4. AI and innovation reinforce sector-level deal activity

Switzerland’s strengths in pharmaceuticals and life sciences, industrial technology, financial services and advanced manufacturing align closely with global demand for AI‑enabled and innovation-driven capabilities. Expect continued activity in (i) pharma/biotech pipeline bolstering, (ii) industrial automation and software, (iii) cybersecurity and data infrastructure, and (iv) wealth and asset management platforms that can scale digitally.

5. Portfolio reshaping is accelerating – carve-outs, JV structures and minority stakes

Rising investment needs for AI, digitalisation and the energy transition are prompting Swiss companies to divest non-core assets and redirect capital towards higher-growth, technology-enabled businesses. We also expect more creative structures (JVs, minority stakes and staged acquisitions) to manage uncertainty, secure access to capabilities and reduce execution risk.

6. Regulatory considerations: investment screening and cross‑border approvals

Switzerland has adopted a new Investment Screening Act focused on acquisitions by state‑controlled foreign investors in sensitive areas. While the regime is intended to be targeted and relatively non‑interventionist, deal timelines and diligence checklists should be updated now – especially for targets with critical infrastructure, defence-related exposure or sensitive data. Cross‑border approvals (EU/US competition, data transfers, export controls) will remain an important execution risk for Swiss outbound deals.