M&A in 2026: megadeals, AI infrastructure and the two-speed market
In 2025, global M&A deal values rose by 36%, while deal volumes increased by just 1%, reflecting a market increasingly driven by large, strategic transactions. Heading into 2026, dealmaking is being reshaped by a surge in AI-related investment and a return of megadeals, even as activity across much of the mid-market remains more subdued. In this environment, M&A remains a key tool for companies seeking growth, capabilities and long-term competitiveness as organic expansion becomes harder to sustain. At the same time, rising AI investment needs and ongoing portfolio reshaping are intensifying competition for capital, requiring dealmakers to balance strategic ambition with disciplined value creation.
Global M&A is entering 2026 in a structurally different position than a year ago. The widening gap between rising deal values and muted volumes is creating a more polarised, K-shaped market, in which large, well-capitalised buyers are driving activity while much of the mid-market players remain cautious.
AI sits at the centre of this shift. It is accelerating strategic change across industries by pulling forward decisions on scale, capabilities, data and talent, and reshaping not only why companies do deals but how they execute them. Our analysis of the 100 largest corporate M&A transactions in 2025 shows how material this shift has already become: around one-third of these deals explicitly cited AI as part of their strategic rationale. Mentions of AI were most frequent in technology, manufacturing, and power and utilities, reflecting both demand for AI-enabled capabilities and the scale of investment required to support them. Within the technology sector, nearly all of the largest transactions referenced AI as a core driver of the deal.
In the near term, the multitrillion-dollar investment required to build AI infrastructure is absorbing capital that might otherwise flow into acquisitions. Over the medium term, however, AI’s potential to raise productivity and transform business models is expected to trigger a new wave of strategic dealmaking.
At the same time, a stabilising macroeconomic backdrop—characterised by easing interest rates, improving CEO confidence and abundant capital—is helping to reduce execution risk. PwC’s 2026 Global CEO Survey underlines both the appetite for larger deals and the geographic divergence shaping M&A. Globally, 41% of CEOs plan to undertake a major acquisition within the next three years, with intent strongest in the Middle East (about 80%) and solid in the US and India (around 50%), but more muted in Germany and China (roughly 20%).
In a two-speed market where capital and confidence are concentrated at the top, M&A in 2026 is likely to be driven by scale, strategic clarity and access to financing rather than by a broad recovery in volumes. In this more polarised market, success will belong to those who can turn AI-driven strategic insight into decisive, well-targeted dealmaking.
Global M&A volumes rebounded in 2025…
Global deal values rose markedly in 2025, increasing by 36%, while transaction volumes remained broadly flat at just 1% growth. The divergence between deal values and volumes underscores the deepening K-shaped nature of the market, with activity concentrated in a relatively small number of very large transactions rather than a broad-based recovery in dealmaking.
Regional patterns reflected this development. In the Americas, deal values surged by 55% and accounted for around 60% of global M&A values, driven largely by megadeals (transactions above $5bn) in the US. In 2025, the US accounted for just under one-quarter of global deal volumes but more than half of global deal values. However, deal volumes in the Americas declined by 6%, as macroeconomic uncertainty, valuation gaps and still-elevated financing costs weighed on mid-market activity.
In Asia Pacific, deal values rose by 10%, while volumes increased by a more modest 3%. China, India, Japan and South Korea all recorded double-digit value growth, with China also seeing a 22% rebound in volumes, although activity remains well below its 2021 peak. Most other Asia-Pacific markets reported declines in deal volumes year-on-year.
In EMEA, both value and activity improved, with deal values up 19% and volumes rising 6%. The increase in values was again driven primarily by megadeals, which rose from 12 in 2024 to 20 in 2025, nearly half of them in financial services, particularly banking and insurance.
…driven by megadeals
Overall, the number of megadeals jumped from 63 in 2024 to 111 in 2025, but still is below the pandemic-era peak of 147 in 2021. Roughly 600 transactions above $1bn accounted for most of the increase in global deal value in 2025, while value across the remaining around 47,000 transactions was flat year-on-year. This stark contrast highlights how concentrated the recovery has become, with confidence and capital flowing mainly to the very largest and best-positioned buyers.
Recent megadeals underline this shift. Late-2025 saw several landmark corporate transactions, including Netflix’s $82.7bn bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and Kimberly-Clark’s $48.7bn offer for Kenvue. At the same time, large-scale sponsor activity featured prominently, including the $55bn take-private of Electronic Arts announced in September 2025 by a consortium led by a sovereign wealth and private equity-backed consortium ad well as AI Infrastructure Partnership’s proposed $40bn acquisition of Aligned Data Centers. Together, these deals reflect the growing influence of well-capitalised buyers in AI- and scale-driven sectors.
Sector concentration reinforces the K-shape of the market. Technology led megadeal activity in 2025 with 26 announced deals—more than double the number recorded in the next two largest sectors, banking and manufacturing. Megadeals are also emerging across banking, manufacturing, power and utilities, and pharmaceuticals and life sciences, where consolidation and structural investment priorities are driving transactions.
Capital allocation becomes the real battleground
The defining feature of the 2026 M&A cycle is not a lack of capital, but how it is being allocated. Even in an environment of abundant liquidity, the multitrillion-dollar build-out of AI infrastructure—spanning data centres, chips, energy, networks and platforms—is creating intense competition for funding across corporate balance sheets and investment portfolios.
As a result, portfolio reviews and divestments are becoming an increasingly important source of deal flow. Companies are selling non-core or lower-growth assets to release capital for AI-enabled growth, while private equity sponsors are under pressure to monetise mature holdings in order to recycle capital into higher-return opportunities. This dynamic is reshaping M&A from both sides: buyers are more selective, and sellers are more motivated, creating opportunities for well-prepared dealmakers with clear strategic priorities. Early signs of recovery in IPO markets are reinforcing this confidence, with PwC’s US Capital Markets 2026 Outlook pointing to accelerating equity issuance as issuer and investor sentiment improves.
Spotlight: AI is now a deal filter, not just a theme
AI is no longer just influencing what companies buy—it is now shaping how deals are valued and underwritten. Across technology, manufacturing, power and utilities, and life sciences, AI is embedded in many strategic rationales for large transactions as companies seek scale, data and digital capabilities.
This pattern is increasingly evident in how deal capital is being allocated. As companies prepare for a more competitive AI landscape, M&A is shifting toward the assets and capabilities needed to run AI at scale. Cybersecurity has moved to the forefront, as reflected in two of the year’s largest technology transactions: Google’s $30bn purchase of Wiz and Palo Alto Networks’s $25bn proposed acquisition of CyberArk. Beyond security, buyers are also using M&A to strengthen their data, analytics and platform foundations, including IBM’s $11bn bid for Confluent to support AI-driven data platforms and Thermo Fisher Scientific’s $8.9bn acquisition of Clario to enhance data and analytics in drug development. In industrial technology, SoftBank’s planned acquisitions of ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4bn and DigitalBridge for $4bn further illustrate how AI, automation and digital infrastructure are becoming increasingly interconnected.
At the same time, AI is changing how deals are assessed and executed. Investors are using AI-driven tools to accelerate target screening, deepen due diligence and model scenarios, while investment committees are spending more time evaluating whether targets can use AI to boost productivity and defend their business models. In this environment, AI readiness is becoming a core driver of valuation, risk and long-term value creation.
What does this mean for dealmakers in 2026?
In a K-shaped market, competitive advantage is concentrating among those with both access to capital and a clear strategic edge—particularly in the “fast lanes” of M&A: sectors, markets and themes shaped by AI, scale and long-term growth.
For executives and deal teams, five priorities stand out:
- Plan for volatility. Build resilience through liquidity, flexible financing and credible contingency options.
- Put capital allocation at the centre of strategy. AI is raising both operating and investment demands, making trade-offs unavoidable.
- Treat AI as a strategic driver. Understand how it is reshaping competition—and how acquisitions can accelerate differentiation.
- Make AI due diligence core. Assess not just today’s capabilities, but the roadmap, execution capacity and three-to-five-year scenarios.
- Adopt an AI-thematic investment lens. Focus on where disruption and opportunity will be greatest as business models evolve.
In short: the M&A market is reopening, but unevenly. AI is no longer just influencing valuation or execution—it is reshaping strategy, capital allocation and the logic of deals themselves. Those who move with conviction, rather than wait for perfect conditions, will be best positioned to create value.
And how about M&A activity in Switzerland?
Switzerland’s M&A landscape remains resilient amid rising global uncertainties.
1. Stability and capital strength remain key advantages
Switzerland’s predictable political, legal and regulatory framework—combined with strong corporate balance sheets and a stable financial system—continues to attract both domestic and international investors. In a world where boards are highly selective, ‘certainty of close’ has become a competitive advantage: governance quality, clear equity stories and well-prepared seller processes matter more than ever.
2. The strong franc can support outbound capability buys
A strong Swiss franc can enhance the purchasing power of Swiss acquirers, particularly for technology and biotech capability acquisitions priced in USD. The practical implication: Swiss buyers can be more competitive in auctions—provided they can credibly underwrite integration and value creation, and hedge FX exposure appropriately.
3. Resilience in a two-speed global market
As global M&A increasingly favours scale, strong balance sheets and strategic clarity, many Swiss corporates are well positioned to operate at the upper end of the market, even as midmarket activity remains cautious and financing stays selective. Sponsors with ‘dry powder’ will remain active, but will demand cleaner equity stories, stronger cash conversion and clearer exit routes.
4. AI and innovation reinforce sector-level deal activity
Switzerland’s strengths in pharmaceuticals and life sciences, industrial technology, financial services and advanced manufacturing align closely with global demand for AIenabled and innovation-driven capabilities. Expect continued activity in (i) pharma/biotech pipeline bolstering, (ii) industrial automation and software, (iii) cybersecurity and data infrastructure, and (iv) wealth and asset management platforms that can scale digitally.
5. Portfolio reshaping is accelerating—carve-outs, JV structures and minority stakes
Rising investment needs for AI, digitalisation and the energy transition are prompting Swiss companies to divest non-core assets and redirect capital towards higher-growth, technology-enabled businesses. We also expect more creative structures (JVs, minority stakes and staged acquisitions) to manage uncertainty, secure access to capabilities and reduce execution risk.
6. Regulatory considerations: investment screening and crossborder approvals
Switzerland has adopted a new Investment Screening Act focused on acquisitions by statecontrolled foreign investors in sensitive areas. While the regime is intended to be targeted and relatively noninterventionist, deal timelines and diligence checklists should be updated now—especially for targets with critical infrastructure, defence-related exposure or sensitive data. Crossborder approvals (EU/US competition, data transfers, export controls) will remain an important execution risk for Swiss outbound deals.
“Switzerland continues to offer a rare combination of stability, innovation and high-quality assets. In a more polarised global M&A market, that makes it an attractive environment for strategic, capability-driven deals—even as investors remain highly selective.”
Marc Schmidli, Partner, Deals Leader, PwC Switzerland“The challenge in today’s market is not access to capital, but where and how it is deployed. For private equity and corporates alike, disciplined timing, creative exit structures and a clear value creation story are becoming critical to unlocking returns in 2026.”
Marc Schmidli, Partner, Deals Leader, PwC SwitzerlandCheck out our overview of the key industry trends driving M&A activity in Switzerland.
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