Swiss M&A trends for Private equity and Principal investors: 2026 Outlook

Private equity (PE) and principal investors remain a central force in global M&A in 2026. Market conditions are still volatile and exit routes constrained. However, larger, higher-conviction transactions are gaining momentum, supported by secondary markets and renewed megadeal activity. At the same time, AI is emerging as a defining strategic driver, reshaping both investment priorities and value creation models. Read on for our latest insights into M&A trends and private capital developments.

Claudio Prante, Partner, Deals Strategy & Value Creation, PE Lead, PwC Switzerland
Sascha Beer, Partner, Corporate Finance / M&A Leader, PwC Switzerland

After several years of uneven activity, private capital is entering a new phase of dealmaking defined by greater strategic intent and structural change. Rather than leading to a broad-based recovery, activity is increasingly shaped by targeted capital deployment into assets where long-term value creation is clear.

Three forces are defining this next phase. First, megadeals are re-emerging as sponsors focus on opportunities with strong strategic fit, operational upside and disciplined valuation. Second, secondary markets are playing a growing role in unlocking liquidity, helping general partners manage holding periods, recycle capital and extend ownership of assets requiring longer-term transformation. Third, fundraising is becoming more concentrated, with large platforms attracting a rising share of capital as smaller managers face higher barriers to scale. In parallel, AI is becoming a core strategic lens for private capital, influencing both investment selection and performance improvement priorities across portfolios.

Alongside these shifts, private credit continues to underpin deal activity, supporting more flexible financing structures and enabling sponsors to execute transactions in a more constrained banking environment. Taken together, these dynamics point to a more structurally driven M&A landscape, in which private equity and principal investors are increasingly acting as long-term partners in corporate transformation rather than purely financial owners.

In the private equity market, fewer but larger transactions are defining the next phase of dealmaking. In the past two years, global M&A activity has been characterised by declining volumes alongside rising aggregate deal values, a pattern that is also evident in private equity as sponsors deploy capital more selectively and focus on higher-conviction opportunities.

In 2025, global private equity transaction values reached almost $2tn, up from around $1.6tn in 2024, even as the number of deals fell to approximately 34,300 from about 36,500 year-on-year. A relatively small number of megadeals accounted for a disproportionate share of total deal values, often involving consortium structures, complex financing and take-private transactions.

Take-privates have been a defining feature of this trend, as sponsors seek greater strategic control away from public markets. Examples include the $55bn agreed acquisition of Electronic Arts by a sovereign wealth and private equity-backed consortium, Sycamore Partners’ $23.7bn take-private of Walgreens Boots Alliance, and Blackstone and TPG’s agreed acquisition of Hologic, valued at up to $18.3bn.

Geography continues to shape outcomes. Japan has emerged as a standout market, supported by governance reforms, capital efficiency pressures and a weaker yen, with activity including EQT’s planned $2.7bn privatisation of Fujitec. India is also attracting rising private equity interest, with PwC estimates suggesting more than one-third of capital from newly raised Asia-focused funds is now being directed towards the country, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term growth prospects.

Key themes driving private equity and principal investor M&A in 2026

Besides the shift towards lower deal volumes but larger transaction sizes, reflecting the broader move to a K-shaped M&A market, we see two other key trends shaping private capital M&A:

1 – AI as a strategic priority and execution tool for private capital

Investment in AI infrastructure is accelerating, with large-scale partnerships forming to fund data centres, computing capacity and energy networks. External estimates suggest that $5tn to $8tn in capital expenditure will be required by 2030 to fund AI technologies and enabling infrastructure.

For private equity and principal investors, these deals go beyond infrastructure exposure and increasingly aim to secure long-term positions in the AI value chain through consortiums combining financial, technology, energy and sovereign capital.

Beyond infrastructure, AI is also transforming how private capital firms assess investments and drive value creation. Generative and agentic AI are becoming embedded in deal processes, with some large sponsors estimating that 30–40% of investment committee discussions now focus on AI-related productivity gains and disruption risks, supported by virtual tools that help analyse targets and inform investment decisions.

2 – Secondary markets ease exit pressure—but do not remove it

Exit conditions remain challenging as the backlog of private equity-backed companies continues to grow. By the end of 2025, the global inventory reached around 32,500 companies, up from 29,400 a year earlier, with many assets held beyond targeted holding periods amid uneven IPO markets and selective buyer demand.

In this environment, secondary transactions have become a critical liquidity channel. Sponsor-to-sponsor deals, GP-led continuation vehicles and other secondary structures are enabling managers to return capital to LPs while extending ownership of assets that require longer-term value creation or operational transformation.

IPOs are reopening—but selectively

Public markets are showing early signs of recovery, with Medline’s $7.2bn IPO—the largest listing of 2025—providing a positive signal. However, IPOs still represent only a small share of exits, meaning secondaries are likely to remain the dominant route in 2026, alongside selective strategic sales.

Scale is shaping fundraising dynamics

Fundraising reflects the uneven exit environment. Global private equity fundraising fell by 3.8%, from $724bn in 2024 to just under $700bn in 2025, the lowest level in over five years. While capital is increasingly concentrated among the largest platforms, many smaller managers face tighter constraints as slower exits limit distributions and new fund formation.

Spotlight on Private credit myths and realities

Private credit has become a central feature of private equity dealmaking, particularly in buyout financing, where it has largely displaced traditional bank lending. With global assets under management now around $2.4tn, private credit funded roughly 80% of leveraged buyout financing in 2024 and 2025, underscoring its growing importance as a core pillar of the private capital market.

At the same time, there are still many misconceptions surrounding this asset class. Let’s take a look and separate perception from reality in today’s private equity market.

“The rules of private equity are shifting. To win in today’s market, funds need to act with focus, think globally, and embrace convergence—whether that’s across sectors, technologies, or capital sources. It’s no longer just about finding the right portfolio company; it’s about building the right ecosystem around it.”

Sascha BeerPartner, Corporate Finance / M&A Leader, PwC Switzerland

Reality: private credit is now mainstream
What started as a substitute for traditional syndicated lending has evolved into a broad financing ecosystem, spanning infrastructure, asset-backed strategies and specialised lending. For private equity sponsors, private credit provides faster execution, higher deal certainty and more flexible structuring options—benefits that have become increasingly important in a more volatile environment and as banks remain more constrained.

Reality: the drivers are more complex
A series of high-profile restructurings and bankruptcies in late 2025 has renewed concerns about credit quality and underwriting discipline. In many of the cases cited, however, private credit made up only a small share of the overall capital structure, with most debt provided or arranged by traditional banks. While losses are a natural part of any credit cycle, private credit still represents a relatively modest portion of total corporate borrowing, indicating that recent distress reflects broader market conditions rather than any single source of funding.

Reality: the risks are often overstated
The rapid expansion of private credit and its lower transparency have drawn comparisons with complex pre-financial-crisis instruments, but these parallels tend to exaggerate the risks. Private credit is typically based on bilateral agreements, stronger documentation and closer lender oversight than the highly leveraged, widely distributed structures that contributed to the global financial crisis. While the asset class is now large enough that it could amplify stress in a severe downturn—particularly given the involvement of insurers and long-term investors—private credit is not generally taxpayer-backed, and current concerns are more focused on transparency and interconnectedness than systemic fragility.

Reality: regulatory focus is increasing
Private credit is attracting growing attention from regulators, particularly around transparency, valuation and investor protection as participation expands. Institutions such as the IMF have called for more proactive supervision of private capital, while regulators including the SEC are pushing for stronger reporting requirements. In the UK, the Bank of England has also launched a system-wide exercise to assess risks in private markets, involving major banks and private credit managers.

Reality: banks are competing—and adapting
Despite facing stricter capital and regulatory requirements, banks remain central to corporate lending, supported by strong client relationships, balance-sheet capacity and distribution networks. Many are responding to competition by partnering with private credit funds to combine origination and capital, as illustrated by Citigroup and Carlyle Group’s agreement in 2025 to explore co-investment and financing opportunities. At the same time, cheaper funding and a renewed risk appetite are enabling banks to regain share in parts of the market, increasing pricing pressure on private credit providers.

M&A outlook for private capital in Switzerland 2026

The Swiss private capital market remains relatively resilient in 2026, although dealmaking is more selective than in prior years. Investors continue to pursue opportunities in sectors such as healthcare, industrial technology and business services, with a clear preference for companies offering resilient earnings, pricing power and strong cash conversion. Switzerland’s legal and governance framework also supports a broad range of transaction structures, allowing PE sponsors to pursue both majority and minority investments, with minority positions typically backed by tailored shareholder rights and governance protections. At the same time, global uncertainties weigh particularly heavily on a smaller market such as Switzerland, creating a cautious short-term outlook. While there is a general willingness to transact, the prevailing climate, persistent valuation gaps, selective lending and longer processes make it more difficult to bring deals across the line.

“While continuing to pursue high-conviction deals, many large private capital players are using today’s uncertain market to focus inward—improving efficiency and capabilities to emerge stronger when conditions improve. Value creation is the new normal.”

Claudio PrantePartner, Deals Strategy & Value Creation, PE Lead, PwC Switzerland

Explore our industry insights on global M&A in 2026.

Gain a deeper understanding of the forces reshaping dealmaking—from AI-driven transformation and megadeals to a more polarised M&A market—and what they mean for strategy, value creation and execution.

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Contact

Sascha Beer

Partner, Corporate Finance / M&A Leader, Zurich, PwC Switzerland

+41 58 792 15 39

Email

Claudio Prante

Partner, Head of Deals Strategy, Sustainability Leader in Deals, Zurich, PwC Switzerland

+41 58 792 47 14