Project Pasadena
Client Situation
We were engaged by an online grocer to support the sale of their retail business.
Our client had an active customer base of c. 700k (more than 1.2 million unique customers per year) and the business was expanding rapidly (13% p.a. over the last five years). As part of the process, we addressed a number of key questions around recent performance:
- Analysed existing customer loyalty and retention rates;
- Predicted headroom in certain geographic and customer demographics supporting expansion potential, especially in key segments with already high penetration;
- Assessed sustainability of historical volume- and price-driven growth, using propensity modeling at a granular demographic and geography level;
- Highlighted the success of the recent change in growth strategy, shifting from a customer acquisition to a customer retention focus.
Approach
PwC analyzed the drivers of historical growth, identifying shifting patterns at customer-level data. This analysis was then used to stress-test the core assumptions in the business plan.
Core analysis included:
- Customer cohort analysis which provided insights into underlying purchasing behaviors (spend per order, order frequency, etc.) across customer demographics and geographies.
- Analysis of market penetration by region (number of existing customers vs total number of serviced households) to assess growth headroom in key regions.
- Weekly movements in a number of active customers to show the effects of marketing campaigns on sales and customer acquisition rates.
- Analysis and assessment of the quality of recent customer cohorts acquired, including changes in frequency of shopping, impact on average order values and retention rates.
Value Impact
- Analytical assessment of critical deal questions, demonstrating the strategic strengths and resilience of the business to potential JV partners.
- A focused due diligence process that answered questions in a rapid and dynamic way.
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