Swiss M&A Industry Trends

With long-term interest rates remaining elevated in some countries and government debt levels contributing to fiscal uncertainty, dealmakers face increasing complexity in financing and valuations. One area feeling the strain is private equity (PE), where exit activity has yet to recover meaningfully. By March 2025, PE firms were holding over 30,000 portfolio companies – 47% of which have been on the books since 2020.

In the first quarter of 2025, PE exits rose to 903 deals, up from 820 in the previous quarter. While this marks a slight improvement, it’s far from the pace needed to reduce the growing backlog. A sluggish IPO market and difficult exit conditions continue to weigh on activity. In response, PE firms are relying more heavily on continuation funds and secondary transactions to generate liquidity – solutions that help manage investor needs but leave many assets on the books. Given the central role of PE in global M&A and its growing footprint in private credit, the industry’s ability to accelerate exits will be a key factor in market dynamics over the coming months.

Deal values rose 15% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, driven largely by a surge in megadeals over $5bn – 36 of which were announced in the first five months alone, up from 31 the year before. Meanwhile, overall deal volumes declined by 9%, highlighting a shift toward fewer but larger transactions. The number of deals exceeding $1bn rose 19%, and those above $5bn increased by 16%. While technology remains the most active sector, M&A activity is broadly spread, with notable growth in regions such as India and the Middle East, where deal volumes rose 18% and 13%, respectively.

In the first half of 2025, M&A activity showed regional contrasts. In Asia Pacific, deal values rose 14% while volumes fell 8%, with India seeing an 18% volume increase but lower overall values due to a mid-market focus. Japan, by contrast, saw volumes fall 13% but values surge 175% on the back of two megadeals announced in the first half of 2025. In EMEA, deal volumes and values declined by 6% and 7%, respectively, mainly due to fewer UK megadeals. In the Americas, volumes dropped 12% but values climbed 26%, driven by a rise in large transactions of more than $1bn – over half of which occurred in the US.

These dynamics suggest growing investor focus on US assets, although recent tariff actions and policy shifts are beginning to cool sentiment and reinforce a preference for local or regional deals over complex cross-border transactions.

M&A activity in H1 2025 reflects diverging sector trajectories. Sectors such as aerospace and defence, chemicals, asset and wealth management, and power and utilities saw growth in both deal volumes and values. In contrast, retail and consumer, pharma, automotive, and industrials declined, with tariff exposure and regulatory headwinds playing a key role.

Service-based sectors – such as IT services, professional services, and asset management – continue to attract strong interest, supported by asset-light models and resilient cash flows. Meanwhile, defence is gaining traction amid rising global security spending.

Megadeals are concentrated in technology, energy, and financial services. The largest transactions include Google’s $32bn proposed acquisition of Wiz, Constellation Energy’s $26.6bn bid for Calpine, and Global Payments’ $24.25bn acquisition of Worldpay.

After peaking at 14.3x EBITDA in late 2024, global M&A valuation multiples have declined to 10.8x in mid-2025, down 14% amid rising financing costs and tariff concerns. A regional divergence is emerging, with US multiples rising while those in Europe and Asia Pacific are falling – possibly reflecting confidence in US resilience. Meanwhile, control premiums remain stable, indicating pricing discipline.

The historic premium on large deals has narrowed: in Q2 2025, large-deal multiples are down 37% from their 2021 peak, compared to a 17% drop for all deals. This suggests growing caution around larger companies, possibly due to greater exposure to global risks and lower growth expectations. Going forward, pricing will require careful scenario modelling, especially with continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

In today’s complex M&A environment, success depends not only on spotting opportunity but also on the ability to act with focus, discipline and agility. Amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and fast-moving technological change, some clear patterns are emerging. Here are six strategies we believe can help dealmakers stay ahead in the second half of 2025:

1. Focus on quality over quantity

Strong companies with resilient models, consistent performance and credible growth plans continue to command high valuations – and attract aggressive bidding. The flight to quality is real: while overall deal volumes are down, high-value transactions are on the rise. In contrast, lower-quality assets are struggling to find buyers, with many sale processes stalling or stretching out.

2. Rethink geography and exposure

Global dealmakers are taking a more granular view of geographic and supply chain exposure, reassessing dependencies across regions and adjusting for growing tariff risks. The goal: build resilience in the face of a more fragmented global economy. For some, this means doubling down on US growth and de-risking from China. Others are ringfencing US exposure and exploring alternatives in Asia, Europe or the Middle East.

3. Anchor strategy in long-term themes

Instead of reacting to market swings, leading dealmakers are investing in enduring structural shifts – such as AI, decarbonisation, demographic trends, and supply chain resilience. A clear thematic strategy builds alignment among stakeholders and helps ensure readiness when market conditions evolve. Our research on megatrends is helping clients sharpen their focus and reposition for the value shifts ahead.

4. Strengthen scenario planning

High volatility calls for deeper, more structured scenario analysis. Dealmakers should model a range of macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical developments – including tariffs, interest rates, and currency shifts – to assess their potential impact on a target’s performance. This forward-looking approach shifts the conversation from uncertainty to preparedness.

5. Prioritise execution from day one

In an environment with little margin for error, execution is everything. Successful deals begin with clear, data-backed value creation plans – developed early and integrated into due diligence and negotiation. Whether through top-line growth, productivity levers, or strategic integration, knowing how value will be created (and by when) is critical.

6. Stay disciplined – and agile

While valuation discipline remains essential, today’s winners are also those who can pivot quickly. Markets are moving fast – surprises around regulation, tariffs, or supply chains are now the norm. Dealmakers need robust integration capabilities, but also the agility to reassess, reframe, and act decisively as conditions evolve.

Switzerland’s M&A landscape remains resilient amid rising global uncertainties. Although geopolitical tensions and shifting US trade policies continue to weigh on investor sentiment, Switzerland’s stable political environment and strategic adaptability help maintain market confidence.

Stable and supportive environment

Switzerland continues to offer a robust legal and regulatory framework, political stability, and business-friendly policies that create a favourable environment for mergers and acquisitions. These conditions enable efficient transaction execution and sustained investor interest.

Monetary policy stimulus

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has taken an accommodative stance, cutting its policy rate to 0% in June 2025 – the sixth reduction since early 2024. The SNB has also signalled its readiness to intervene further if needed. These measures are bolstering deal-financing conditions and supporting overall M&A activity.

Resilience in a challenging global context

Despite slower global growth, a strong Swiss franc, and rising trade tensions, the Swiss economy remains comparatively resilient. The IMF projects 1.3% GDP growth in 2025, slightly lower than previous estimates. However, Switzerland’s solid institutional framework and sound financial sector – strengthened after the UBS-Credit Suisse integration – continue to support confidence in dealmaking.

Sector-specific growth drivers

M&A activity remains concentrated in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, media and telecom (TMT), and financial services. In 2024, these sectors accounted for over 90% of deal volume, driven by strategic consolidation, innovation, and market expansion goals.

Distressed and SME activity

While overall deal flow remains healthy, distressed M&A is gaining momentum due to refinancing pressures among leveraged companies. Legal instruments such as the Swiss pre-pack process are increasingly used to facilitate restructuring-driven deals. By contrast, domestic SME M&A activity declined by approximately 9% in 2024, reflecting conservative investment behaviour and a focus on outbound growth.

Cross-border transaction potential

As of May 2025, Switzerland lifted restrictions on EU stock exchange equivalence, improving conditions for cross-border transactions and investor access. This move is expected to further stimulate inbound and outbound M&A activity involving EU partners.

Focus on digital transformation and sustainability

Swiss companies are increasingly using M&A as a strategic tool to accelerate digital transformation and meet environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. Acquisitions targeting AI capabilities, clean technology, and sustainable operations are on the rise – especially in the healthcare, manufacturing, and financial sectors.

Uncertainty continues to shape the M&A landscape – from interest rates and inflation to trade policy and geopolitical tensions. Rather than waiting for clarity, dealmakers must act with conviction and discipline. Capital is available, and deals are happening, especially where there’s a clear strategic rationale and strong execution. AI is playing a growing role, helping accelerate due diligence, integration, and value creation, but also posing new risks and challenges from implementation to cultural resistance. In the second half of 2025, those who succeed will be the ones who integrate risk into their planning, move decisively, and stay focused despite ongoing volatility.

Check out the Swiss M&A trends 2025