Global M&A industry trends: 2026 mid-year outlook

AI is no longer just influencing what companies buy. It is changing the scale of transactions, redirecting capital flows and transforming how deals are executed. Together, these forces are creating a more polarised market and redefining the rules of dealmaking.

1. Megadeals are driving market activity

Global M&A value is expected to reach approximately US$4 trillion in 2026, its strongest level since 2021, despite declining deal volumes. Megadeals – M&A transactions above US$5 billion – have accounted for almost half of total global deal value so far this year, roughly double their share just two years ago. 

At the top end, well-capitalised corporates, private equity firms and sovereign investors continue to pursue scale, resilience and strategic transformation through large-scale transactions. NextEra Energy’s proposed US$67 billion combination with Dominion Energy, which would create the world’s largest regulated utility business, is a clear example of how dealmakers are using M&A to secure scale and position themselves for long-term growth opportunities, including rising power demand driven by AI infrastructure.

Many mid-market participants, by contrast, remain constrained by financing conditions, valuation uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

2. AI is changing where capital flows

AI is no longer simply influencing M&A strategy. It is increasingly competing with traditional acquisitions for capital.

AI infrastructure, energy, digital transformation and other large-scale investment priorities all require significant funding. As a result, companies are reviewing portfolios more actively, divesting non-core assets and reallocating capital towards technology-enabled growth opportunities.

This shift is reshaping sector attractiveness. Assets linked to digital infrastructure, energy and industrial capabilities are attracting strong investor interest, while sectors facing potential AI disruption are being assessed more selectively.

3. AI is transforming the deal process

AI is beginning to reshape the mechanics of dealmaking itself. The biggest shift over the past 12 to 18 months has been the evolution of AI from a tool for data analysis to one that can increasingly support complex M&A problem-solving.

Advanced AI tools are accelerating target screening, due diligence, valuation analysis and value creation planning, allowing deal teams to analyse larger volumes of data with greater speed and transparency. AI-enabled platforms can now review documents, surface potential risks and synthesise commercial, operational and financial information far more efficiently than traditional approaches.

While human judgement remains essential, AI is rapidly becoming an integral part of the M&A lifecycle. The question is no longer whether AI will transform dealmaking, but how quickly. Companies that successfully combine AI-enabled insights with strategic judgement will be better positioned to identify opportunities, manage risk and create value.

Despite the resurgence in megadeals, dealmakers continue to operate in an environment characterised by significant uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, rising sovereign debt levels, inflationary pressures and elevated financing costs are all shaping investment decisions. At the same time, the enormous capital requirements associated with AI infrastructure, energy security and broader infrastructure investment are intensifying competition for funding.

Financial markets have so far absorbed many of these pressures. However, slower economic growth, higher-for-longer interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions could make dealmaking more challenging in the months ahead. Additional pressure points include the growing private equity exit backlog and questions around the resilience of private credit markets.

Resilience has become a strategic imperative. Success will depend on balancing conviction with discipline, maintaining strategic flexibility and acting decisively when opportunities arise. Companies that prepare for multiple scenarios and remain focused on long-term value creation will be best positioned to navigate an increasingly complex deal environment.

The second half of 2026 is likely to remain characterised by uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, elevated capital requirements and the growing influence of AI continue to reshape the M&A landscape. At the same time, dealmakers face a more polarised market in which scale, capital allocation and execution capabilities increasingly determine success.

Against this backdrop, dealmakers should consider several key questions:

• Are we on the right side of AI disruption, and do we have the capabilities required to remain competitive?

• Where does scale create a genuine competitive advantage, and where does it simply add complexity?

• Is our capital allocation strategy keeping pace with growing investment needs in AI, infrastructure and energy?

• How resilient is our financing strategy if interest rates remain higher for longer or growth slows further?

• How will AI affect the target company's business model, valuation and long-term growth prospects?

• Are we prepared for a deal process that is becoming faster, more data-driven and increasingly AI-enabled?

The M&A winners of the coming years will be those that remain clear about their strategic priorities, disciplined in execution, and flexible enough to respond to a rapidly changing market environment.

For Swiss dealmakers, the question is no longer whether to invest, but where. As AI reshapes strategic priorities, companies must balance acquisitions with competing demands for capital and management attention.

 1. Stable economic and regulatory environment: Switzerland’s reliable political climate, robust regulatory framework, and investor-friendly policies continue to attract both domestic and international investors. This creates a supportive environment for M&A, ensuring smooth transaction processes and favourable conditions for investment.  

2. Resilience amid global uncertainties: Despite global economic challenges, Switzerland’s strong economy and strategic positioning are expected to sustain a positive M&A outlook. The Swiss National Bank’s interest rate cuts are supporting dealmaking activity, further enhancing the country’s appeal.  

3. Sector-specific growth: The pharmaceutical, technology, and financial services sectors are poised for significant M&A activity. Companies in these industries aim to enhance innovation, consolidate operations, and expand their market presence, driving numerous acquisition deals.

4. Digital transformation and sustainability: Swiss companies are increasingly prioritising digital transformation and sustainability, leading to strategic acquisitions. Firms are targeting businesses with advanced technologies and sustainable practices to boost their competitive edge and align with market trends.